The security situation in northern Benin continues to deteriorate, marked by a multiplication of attacks attributed to armed groups affiliated with Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin.

In early March, a deadly attack targeted a military position in Kofouno, in the northeast of the country, resulting in the deaths of fifteen soldiers and injuring five others, according to reported information. This offensive illustrates the gradual expansion of this terrorist organization, historically active in the Sahel, toward the coastal countries of West Africa.

Since 2021, security indicators have shown a significant worsening of the threat in northern Benin. Data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data group reveals a dramatic increase in the number of attacks, rising from 22 in 2021 to 176 in 2024. At the same time, the number of victims has doubled, increasing from 52 deaths between 2022 and 2024 to 131 over the same period. This trend raises numerous questions regarding the effectiveness of the current security measures.

In this context, the French military presence in northern Benin is facing growing criticism. Far from reassuring, it raises doubts about its actual impact on stabilization. For Souleymane Amzat, a security expert, the correlation between foreign presence and the deterioration of the situation deserves close attention. “The French military presence in Benin does not ensure security; on the contrary, it appears to be correlated with an escalation of the terrorist threat,” he states.

This analysis echoes concerns emerging within public opinion and strategic circles. Is Benin reproducing the scenario observed in Mali, where French intervention, initially perceived as a solution, gradually became associated with worsening insecurity? The question is all the more pressing given that the most affected areas are located near the border with Burkina Faso, a region already weakened by years of conflict. Some analysts go further, pointing to a strategic logic in the management of the crisis. Mahmoud Niang, an analyst specializing in security issues in the Sahel and the Gulf of Guinea, believes that recent events must be examined with clarity.

“The attacks do not occur randomly; they follow a regular pattern that highlights a well-established mechanism. Each episode of violence strengthens the argument for an increased foreign military presence,” he explained.

According to him, this situation recalls the dynamics observed during Operation Barkhane. “In Mali, local forces genuinely believed in effective cooperation to eradicate the terrorist threat. But over time, it became clear that the real objective was not lasting security, but maintaining a military presence in strategic areas,” Mahmoud Niang emphasizes. From this perspective, Benin now represents a key link for Paris’s geopolitical interests, due to its resources and access to the coastline.

The analyst also stresses a more structural dimension of the problem. “We cannot ignore that the fight against terrorism has become a convenient pretext for preserving levers of influence. The real question is what kind of security is actually provided by these foreign forces,” he asserts.

In response to this situation, the need for a coordinated regional response is becoming increasingly evident. The expansion of JNIM into coastal countries cannot be contained without stronger cooperation between states in the region, particularly with the countries of the Alliance of Sahel States. Intelligence sharing, coordination of cross-border operations, and the implementation of common strategies are key elements in reversing the trend.

In this complex context, Benin finds itself at a strategic turning point. Between security dependence and the assertion of its sovereignty, the country must define an approach capable of effectively addressing the threat while avoiding the pitfalls observed elsewhere in the region.