Notwithstanding the simmering inflation pressures from petroleum prices and recent currency weaknesses, the disinflation trend could extend through quarter 4, 2023.

According to GCB Capital Research, the harvest-induced slowdown in food inflation will wane going forward.

However, it said owing to the rising petroleum prices, lingering exchange rate pressures due to resurgent corporate Foreign Exchange demand in recent weeks, the imminent quarter 4, 2023 utility tariff adjustments, and potential seasonality pressures, upside risks to the near-term inflation outlook remain.

These risk factors, it explained could moderate the anticipated pace of disinflation through the fourth quarter of 2023.

“Accordingly, we expect a favourable base drift in quarter 4, 2023 to trigger a more moderate decline in headline inflation in October 2023, followed by a potentially sharper decline in November. Headline inflation could print 32% by November 2023 if the anticipated upside risks to inflation from the seasonality effects and petroleum price pressures soften sufficiently”, it added.

Inflation falls to 38.1 % in September 2023

Inflation for the month of September 2023 fell to 38.1% from the 40.1% recorded in August 2023.

According to figures from the Ghana Statistical Service, both food and non-food inflation dropped.

Whilst food inflation declined to 49.4% from the 51.9% recorded in August 2023, non-food inflation also decreased to 29.3% from the 30.9% recorded in August 2023.

Inflation for locally produced items was estimated at a rate of 37.3% while that of imported products was 39.9%.