Fuel prices in Ghana could surge to as high as GH¢17 per litre if the ongoing crisis in the Middle East between Israel, Iran and the United States does not ease in the coming days, the Chief Executive Officer of the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC), Dr Riverson Oppong, has warned.

Speaking in an interview with JoyBusiness on Monday, March 9, Dr. Oppong said escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could push global crude oil prices sharply upward, with severe consequences for fuel-importing countries like Ghana.

“If by Wednesday things have not come down...we are going to hit around 110 to 120 [dollars per barrel],” he said.

Ghana imports a significant portion of its petroleum products through Bulk Distribution Companies (BDCs), which then supply Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) that retail fuel across the country.

According to COMAC, rising international oil prices quickly translate into higher local fuel prices once new shipments arrive at higher cost levels.

“If you are picking the trading price that we are seeing from the markets or from the BDCs today for the oil marketing companies… we should hit above 15 cedis, between 15 to 17 cedis, depending on where you buy your fuel from,” Dr. Oppong explained.

According to him, such a price surge would not only affect African economies but could also have far-reaching implications across Asia, Europe and other parts of the world.

“That will be ridiculous for countries, not only in Africa but even in Asia and South Asia… even Australia,” he added.

Middle East war driving global oil volatility

The warning comes amid escalating hostilities linked to the expanding conflict involving Israel and Iran, with the United States backing Israel militarily and diplomatically. The conflict has heightened fears of disruptions to oil supply routes across the Middle East—home to some of the world’s largest oil producers.

Global markets have been particularly sensitive to the possibility of disruptions in strategic maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply passes daily.

Any disruption to shipments from major producers in the Gulf could trigger rapid price spikes in international crude markets.

Energy analysts say traders are already pricing in geopolitical risk premiums as tensions escalate, pushing oil prices upward and

Dr. Oppong noted that Ghana is particularly vulnerable to these global developments because it relies heavily on imported refined petroleum products.

“Let’s not politicise it. Let’s face facts. Ghana did not play any role in this particular fight or war,” he said.

“But we are here as a net importer of energy, and therefore we must suffer the consequences.”

The impact of the crisis is already being felt globally.

Several countries, including the United Kingdom, have recorded sharp increases in petrol and diesel prices as crude oil costs climb.

“Today the UK has recorded one of the highest pump prices ever, even in history,” Dr. Oppong said, stressing that Ghana is not alone in facing the consequences of the global energy shock.

“This is a global issue,” he emphasised.

Impact on Ghana’s economy

Rising fuel prices could have significant implications for Ghana’s economy, affecting transportation costs, food prices, electricity tariffs and overall inflation.

Fuel costs play a central role in the pricing of goods and services across the country, meaning sustained increases could place additional pressure on households and businesses.

Economic analysts warn that higher fuel prices could also complicate efforts by the Bank of Ghana to stabilise inflation and maintain macroeconomic stability.

Transport operators, manufacturers and logistics companies are particularly exposed to fuel price increases, which often trigger fare hikes and higher production costs.

Calls for calm and policy coordination

Despite the looming challenges, Dr. Oppong urged policymakers and the public to avoid politicising the issue, stressing that the current price pressures are driven primarily by global market forces beyond Ghana’s control.

He called for careful monitoring of the international situation and coordinated policy responses to cushion the economy if prices continue to rise.

Analysts say the trajectory of fuel prices in Ghana will largely depend on how quickly tensions in the Middle East ease and whether global crude oil markets stabilise in the coming weeks.

For now, industry players warn that unless the crisis subsides soon, Ghanaians may soon be paying significantly more at the pumps, with prices potentially approaching GH¢17 per litre.