Audio By Carbonatix
Germany's economy shrank during the April-to-June period of this year.
A decline in exports dampened growth, according to official data, which comes amid concerns of a global slowdown.
Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% compared with the previous quarter, according to the Federal Statistics Office.
That takes the annual growth rate down to 0.4%. Germany, Europe's largest economy, narrowly avoided a recession last year.
Early signs for the third quarter "look ominous", said Andrew Kenningham, chief Europe economist at Capital Economics. "Manufacturing business surveys for July were all gloomy.
"And while the services sector should continue to hold up better, there are some signs that the slump is spreading to the labour market."
Trade war woes
While the overall figures were negative, household and government expenditure increased, as did investment outside the construction sector.
Construction itself fell after an unusually good first three months, boosted by a mild winter.
But Chancellor Angela Merkel's government still believes the economy will grow slightly this year and does not think further stimulus is necessary.
"As the chancellor has already laid out, the government does not currently see any need for further measures to stabilise the economy - the fiscal policy of the German government is already expansive," a government spokeswoman said.
Economy Minister Peter Altmaier said Germany was not in a recession and could avoid one by taking the right measures.
This is the downside of being an exporting powerhouse. When the international economic environment clouds over, you get rained on.
The German statistical office hasn't given a detailed breakdown, but they have confirmed that exports declined and did so by more than imports.
China is at the centre of the trade storms and it's also an important export market for Germany. So trade held the economy back, in contrast with consumer spending and investment in Germany which both rose.
The economy contracted back in the third quarter of last year, and the subsequent rebound was not all that powerful.
Looking ahead, one question is whether Germany will see another decline in the current quarter, which would make it a recession as the term is often defined.
Some recent surveys of business confidence have been decidedly downbeat so the "R" word is certainly a possibility.
That said, Germany could still avoid it, and even if not, the country would at least be going into recession with unemployment that is among the lowest in the world.
"The development of foreign trade slowed down economic growth because exports recorded a stronger quarter-on-quarter decrease than imports," the statistics office said.
The US-China trade war and the UK's departure from the EU, especially if it happens without a deal, are among factors affecting global economic confidence.
Last month, the International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecasts for the global economy for this year and next, citing US-China tariffs, US car tariffs and no-deal Brexit.
China's own economic slowdown has weakened demand for foreign goods. It is an important market for Germany, since it buys plenty of luxury cars.
Only the much larger economies of the US and China export more goods than Germany.
The results may make authorities consider more monetary stimulus, said Neil Wilson, chief market analyst for Markets.com.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank has hinted it could cut interest rates to tackle a slowdown in the eurozone economy.
The ECB said last month that a weak manufacturing sector and uncertainty over Brexit and trade threatened to derail growth. It forecast rates at current or lower levels until mid-2020.
Latest Stories
-
Analysis: After allocating over ₵1bn, parliament now turns on the OSP
2 minutes -
OSP’s failure to stop Ofori-Atta is an irrecoverable mistake – Kpebu
21 minutes -
UPSA confers posthumous honorary doctorate on former first lady Nana Konadu Agyeman-Rawlings
23 minutes -
Martin Kpebu says he has not been formally charged by OSP
30 minutes -
Why not clean energy: Cost or access?
31 minutes -
Minority sounds alarm over fuel shortages crippling Ghana’s fishing communities
33 minutes -
Minority calls for urgent action to shield farmers from rising production challenges
35 minutes -
AGRA Ghana salutes Farmers as nation marks Farmers’ Day
51 minutes -
Bawumia’s favourability rises, widens lead in new Global Info analytics survey
53 minutes -
Minority accuses gov’t of neglect after GH¢5bn rice left to waste
58 minutes -
Why Tsatsu Tsikata’s legacy is Ghana’s future
1 hour -
Farmers need support all year, not just awards’ — Prof. Boadi
1 hour -
Spotify ranks ‘Konnected Minds’ Ghana’s No. 1 Podcast for 2025
1 hour -
Minority caucus push for modern AI-driven agricultural and fisheries revolution
1 hour -
Mahama reaffirms Ghana’s commitment to ending HIV/AIDS by 2030
1 hour
