Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, has said the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) stands in a very strong position to win the 2028 general election, warning that only a “big mess” could cost the party victory.

Speaking on Prime Insight on Joy Prime on Saturday, Mr Dankwah pointed to recent polling numbers as evidence that the NDC has a clear advantage over its main rival, the NPP.

“It will take a big mess from the NDC to lose the election. I mean, there’s more than 80% chance for NDC to win the election,” he said.

He revealed that the July poll placed the Education Minister, Haruna Iddrisu slightly ahead in the NDC’s internal race for flagbearer with 27%, followed closely by National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketiah at 26%.

The survey also gave Finance Minister, Dr Cassiel Ato Forson 22%, Chief of Staff Julius Debrah 11%, and Foreign Affairs Minister, Samuel Okudzeto Ablakwa 8%.

“It’s quite strange,” Mr Dankwah observed. “If you look at the people who are probably doing very well, they are the ones who have not declared any public interest or shown any action that they want to contest.

"So if you see Haruna Iddrisu, very little from him as far as his ambition is concerned, but people know that he’s going to contest because of some of the things he has said in the past.”

He described Finance Minister Dr Ato Forson’s performance in the polls as “the surprising one”, noting that both he and Foreign Affairs Minister Okudzeto Ablakwa have not declared intentions to run but are “getting very good numbers so far.”

“If they haven’t declared any intention and they are doing this well, we don’t know what will happen if they do declare,” he added.

He also said that they have observed some key trends from NPP and NDC voters towards the 2028 general elections.

“There are key things we’ve seen. NDC voters prefer NPP to elect Dr Bawumia, and NPP voters prefer NDC to elect Asiedu Nketiah or Haruna Iddrisu.”

When the host suggested that historical patterns where no first-time presidential candidate has won in Ghana could still work in the NPP’s favour, Mr Dankwah dismissed such assumptions as outdated.

“I wish you speak to the people in your studio, the young voters, in the form of a focus group discussion and see what they hold. We have held some beliefs in this country that are out of date, irrelevant in modern-day politics,” he said.

According to him, young voters under 35 will play a decisive role in the upcoming election.

“We have a new brand of voters who have nothing to do with ideas. So people must be prepared to get a shock of their lives. The young ones will decide your vote below 35 years of age. It’s going to be largely driven by the youth,” he said.

Mr Dankwah said that these younger voters are less concerned with tradition and more focused on tangible results.

“They don’t believe in those things, they look at tangible results who can deliver what they want,” he explained.