Despite overwhelmingly positive polling data for the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the Kpandai Constituency, the parliamentary contest heading into the December 30 rerun remains exceptionally tight, with the outcome currently “too close to call.”

This cautionary analysis comes from Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, who presented the findings of a recent poll on Channel One on Saturday, December 13. His assessment precedes the critical by-election ordered by the High Court after the November 24 ruling annulled the 2024 parliamentary election result.

Global InfoAnalytics’ data suggests a significant advantage for the incumbent government within the constituency, a factor that traditionally translates into electoral success for the ruling party’s parliamentary candidate.

• Country Direction: A robust 66 percent of Kpandai respondents believe Ghana is moving in the right direction. Only 26 percent disagreed, while eight percent held no opinion.
• Presidential Approval: Approval ratings for the President were similarly high, with 64 percent of respondents giving their endorsement to the President’s performance. Twenty-seven percent disapproved, and nine percent had no opinion.
• Economic Outlook: Voters reported tangible improvements in their personal finances. 54 percent indicated that their economic situation had improved, compared to 34 percent who said it remained unchanged, and only 11 percent who said it had worsened.

Mr. Dankwah acknowledged that these figures create a powerful tailwind for the NDC candidate.

“The sentiments in Kpandai overall appear to favour the ruling NDC government in the sense that you have a majority of voters saying that the country is heading in the right direction,” he said.

He summarized the seemingly clear path for the governing party:

“So broadly, this is a sentiment that should really carry the NDC candidate across the finish line quite easily.”

However, the Executive Director issued a strong caution against premature celebration, noting that the positive national mood has not yet decisively translated into a clear victory for the local NDC parliamentary candidate.

“What we’ve seen in the poll when it comes to the parliamentary election is that it is too close to call. The margin is just within the margin of error,” Mr. Dankwah revealed.

The extremely tight margins mean the parliamentary contest remains highly competitive and unpredictable. Former Kpandai Member of Parliament, Matthew Nyindam, whose election was annulled, has vowed to participate in the December 30 rerun despite contesting the High Court’s ruling, insisting that the 2024 parliamentary election was conducted fairly. The outcome hinges heavily on voter turnout and campaign effectiveness in the final weeks.

Mr. Dankwah concluded by emphasizing the need for patience:

“For that reason, we have to wait for the final poll to see which direction the election will go,” indicating that a final survey will be required to forecast the ultimate winner in this closely watched electoral battle.

The Electoral Commission received formal confirmation from the Clerk of Parliament on December 8, officially declaring the Kpandai seat vacant and paving the way for the December 30 rerun.