President of Ghana Nana Akufo-Addo

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), has projected a victory for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) ahead of Ghana’s general elections in December.

According to its latest report, the body concluded that the victory will be hinged on “infrastructure development (such as improving internet and electricity access as well as roads, in rural areas) and outlined ambitious growth plans for cash-crop yields, which would bolster rural income.”

In the 2016 elections, then candidate Nana Akufo-Addo beat John Mahama of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) by polling 5,716,026 million votes, representing 53.85%, while John Mahama polled 4,713,277 million votes representing 44.40%.

This was touted as the worst defeat so far for an incumbent President.

The EIU premised the defeat on “public concerns over a flaring economy, which many Ghanaians still associate with Mr Mahama.”

The NDC is going into the election with John Mahama as flagbearer with the hope of securing victory at the end of President Akufo-Addo’s first term in office.

The momentum in the political space has been doused to an extent by the Covid-19 pandemic, which has thrown many sectors of the country’s priorities into disarray.

But in its April 2020 report, the EIU argues that the challenge presented by the novel coronavirus crisis does not, in any way, help the chances of the NDC in its bid to secure victory.

“Despite the uncertainties posed by the pandemic. The Economic Intelligence Unit believes that it will be difficult for the NDC under Mr Mahama to portray itself as the better custodian of Ghana’s economy.”

Based on these indicators the EIU concludes that “we therefore expect Mr Akufo-Addo and the NPP to secure re-election.”

It however, hinted that the election may be closely contended if “the NDC can present a coherent challenge and hold the NPP to account on its unfulfilled campaign promises.”

The Economist Intelligence Unit had, months ago, made a similar projection in favour of the governing NPP.