Today is the 4th day of May, 2025 — and from here to the next election is around 1,313 days! Indeed, the gap is remarkably wide — and under normal circumstances, nobody should be touting the 2028 elections.

However, elections, like they say, is not an event, but a process — and that explains why the two main political parties are already bracing for the next contest.

In the case of the NDC, two known faces have emerged as potential flagbearers. The first is the party's National Chairman — Johnson Asiedu Nketia — and the second is the current Chief of Staff, Mr Julius Debrah.

Between these two gentlemen, one is perceived as the darling of the power brokers, while the other is seen as the delight of the grassroots — a plot that'll be curious, interesting and thrilling to watch.

Even though none have declared any formal intentions, it is only a fool who'll dismiss the possibility of rain, even when the clouds gather and still keep his underwear on the line.

Let me now turn my attention to the NPP, where the indications are much clearer. Unlike the NDC, where the possibilities are still sketchy, it is plainly obvious that in the NPP, Kennedy Agyapong will give Bawumia a hot chase for the flagbearership — and that brings us to the essence of this article: Is Bawumia really a bad option who must be replaced?

To answer this question, the first and most important issue to engage is why political parties win elections, especially in a bread-and-butter country like Ghana!

In this regard, if there's any factor that chiefly propels the chances of any candidate in an election, that factor, in my view, is the state of the economy and how voters feel in their pockets!

This is so crucial that, no matter the bliss and aura that accompanies a campaign, once the voters are hungry and the cost of living is high, no amount of campaign songs, political rhetorics and resounding speeches may compel them to vote for the architects of their pain.

Suffice to say, the recent NPP administration was seen as the brain behind the woes of Ghanaians, and this, in my view, was the main reason why Ghanaians thrashed the NPP at the polls — such that even if Obama had led the party, he may still have fallen to the sword!

To put it simply, the scorecard of Akufo-Addo was so horrible that it would have broken the neck of any other NPP candidate who shouldered the NPP in 2024.

For many experts and thinkers of political contests, the 2024 elections were actually a referendum on the felt leadership of Akufo-Addo — and not a verdict on the competence of Bawumia, who, in all sincerity, had little say, due to the passive construction of Vice Presidents in our governance structure.

Even though he was the face and light of government's economic management team, it is trite that his role was merely advisory — and therefore as complicit as he may be, an advisory role player is not the same as the actual executioner — a view I've always held.

For the avoidance of doubt, this is not to suggest that Bawumia didn't commit any blunders that worsened his already precarious situation.

The truth of the matter is that he himself miscalculated a few times — but the real question is that if Kennedy Agyapong or any other candidate had led the party in 2024, what new argument would they have advanced, in the midst of their own imperfections?

In the eyes of those who voted, the Akufo-Addo regime was a shining mirror of poor governance, economic incompetence, arrogance and many other ills which the party has recently been admitting — and therefore no candidate could have made Ghanaians happier.

Indeed, the defeat of 2024 was a blow that could not be dodged. It was a bullet meant to pierce — and a knife destined to stab — such that even if the finest politician were to have led the NPP, he still may not have escaped the wrath and brutality of Ghanaians!

The long and short of it is that, while Bawumia had his own imperfections and made his own fatal mistakes, nobody could have saved the NPP — and therefore, how is he the factor to be replaced going into 2028?

Needless to say, if Bawumia is replaced, it may deepen the impression that the NPP is truly an Akan party, and the gains of Bawumia in the North may be significantly diminished, if not completely eroded! This is part of the many pitfalls his removal will bring, and that's why it shouldn't be a default choice as it seems.

In light of the above, I am inclined to conclude that the prospects of the NPP in the next election have little or nothing to do with the candidature of Bawumia.

If there's anything that can give the party a chance in 2028, it will be more about the failures of the NDC — and for the NDC to fail, the NPP must be a convincing opposition that thrives on facts over lies, churning superior alternatives with better posturing and proper internal organisation!

This is because changing a drummer will not produce better tunes if the drum is actually broken! Selah !!!

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About the author

The author of this piece is Paa Kwesi Schandorf — a writer, journalist and corporate MC, twice nominated by the BBC for the Komla Dumor Award. He's currently the acting news editor at TV Africa — having worked with JoyNews in the past.