The World Bank projects 4.8% growth for Ghana in 2026, alongside an end-of-year inflation rate of 9%.

These forecasts were contained in the Bank’s latest Africa Economic Update report released on April 8.

Details

The 4.8% growth projection is in line with the government’s estimate captured in the 2026 budget.

However, compared to 2025, the outlook suggests a slowdown. Ghana recorded a 6% end-year GDP growth rate in 2025.

It remains unclear what specific factors will drive the expected moderation. But government earlier indicated it was cautious with the 2026 projections due to external developments likely to impact the economy.

Inflation Rate Projection

The World Bank is also projecting that Ghana will end 2026 with an inflation rate of 9%.

This is slightly higher than the 8% target set by the Finance Minister, Cassiel Ato Forson.

Based on the Bank’s forecast, some analysts believe inflation could rise in the coming months before easing to hit the year-end target.

Inflation stood at 3.2% as of March this year.

Some observers also point to developments in the Middle East, which have contributed to spikes in petroleum prices.

Despite these risks, Ghana is still expected to end the year with single-digit inflation.

World Bank Africa Report

The report further noted that growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 4.1% in 2026, unchanged from 2025, although downside risks are increasing.

According to the World Bank, the region’s recovery from successive global shocks is losing momentum, with growth projections revised downward by 0.3 percentage points from the October 2025 forecast.

Domestic demand continues to support growth, driven by private consumption and investment, alongside relatively accommodative monetary policy and improving external conditions.

A weaker U.S. dollar has helped ease inflationary pressures and boost household incomes across the region.

At the same time, high prices for commodities such as cocoa and coffee supported revenues in 2025 and are expected to strengthen fiscal and external positions in resource-rich countries.

However, rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, high debt-service burdens, and structural challenges are weighing on growth and job creation.

The report noted that these risks have intensified following a sharp escalation in the Middle East conflict, including attacks on energy facilities and disruptions to global shipping routes.