Countries need to collectively commit to reducing annual greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2030 and 57% by 2035 in their next Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

According to a new report from the UN Environment Programme (UNEP), this commitment must be supported by swift action, or the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C under the Paris Agreement will be out of reach within a few years.

UNEP's Emissions Gap Report 2024: No More Hot Air… Please! warns that if countries do not raise their ambitions in these new NDCs and take immediate action, the world could face a temperature rise of 2.6-3.1°C this century which would have severe consequences for people, the planet, and economies.

Updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) therefore are expected to be submitted early next year in preparation for the COP30 climate talks in Brazil.

In a video message about the report, António Guterres stated that the emissions gap is not just an abstract concept. He emphasized the direct connection between rising emissions and the increasing frequency and intensity of climate-related disasters.

“Around the world, people are paying a terrible price. Record emissions mean record sea temperatures supercharging monster hurricanes; record heat is turning forests into tinderboxes and cities into saunas; record rains are resulting in biblical floods.”

António also remarked that today's Emissions Gap report is unequivocal: the world is "playing with fire," and there can be no more delays, as time is running out.

“Closing the emissions gap means closing the ambition gap, the implementation gap, and the finance gap. Starting at COP29.”

The report also examines what is necessary to limit global warming to below 2°C. To achieve this, emissions must be reduced by 28% by 2030 and by 37% from 2019 levels by 2035, which will be the new benchmark year included in the next NDCs.

Executive Director of UNEP, Inger Andersen, stated that the time for addressing the climate crisis is now. She emphasized that the world requires unprecedented global mobilization, starting immediately, ahead of the next round of climate pledges. Without this action, the 1.5°C goal will soon be out of reach, and the target of limiting warming to below 2°C will be in serious jeopardy.

“I urge every nation: no more hot air, please. Use the upcoming COP29 talks in Baku, Azerbaijan, to increase action now, set the stage for stronger NDCs, and then go all-out to get on a 1.5°C pathway,” she said.

She noted that even if the world exceeds the 1.5°C threshold—an increasingly likely scenario—it is essential to continue striving for a net-zero, sustainable, and prosperous future.

“Every fraction of a degree avoided counts in terms of lives saved, economies protected, damages avoided, biodiversity conserved and the ability to rapidly bring down any temperature overshoot.”

The report also emphasizes the consequences of delaying action. Although the necessary cuts are based on 2019 levels, greenhouse gas emissions have reached a record high of 57.1 gigatons of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023. While this has only a minor impact on the total reductions needed from 2019 to 2030, the delay means that emissions must be reduced by 7.5% each year until 2035 to meet the 1.5°C goal, and by 4% for the 2°C target. The magnitude of the annual reductions needed will increase with each year of inaction.

The report indicates that there is technical potential to cut emissions by up to 31 gigatons of CO2 equivalent by 2030—approximately 52% of emissions in 2023—and by 41 gigatons by 2035. Achieving these reductions could close the gap to the 1.5°C target in both years, with costs estimated to be below US$200 per ton of CO2 equivalent.

The increased use of solar photovoltaic technologies and wind energy could account for 27% of the total reduction potential by 2030 and 38% by 2035. Actions related to forests could also contribute about 20% of the potential reductions in both years. Other effective strategies include enhancing efficiency, electrifying systems, and switching fuels in the buildings, transport, and industrial sectors.

The report says this potential demonstrates that it is feasible to achieve the COP28 targets, which include tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030, doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030, moving away from fossil fuels, and conserving, protecting, and restoring nature and ecosystems.

A minimum six-fold increase in mitigation investment is necessary to achieve net-zero, supported by reforms in the global financial system, robust private sector involvement, and international collaboration. This investment, according to the report, is deemed affordable, with an estimated incremental cost for net-zero ranging from US$0.9 to 2.1 trillion annually from 2021 to 2050—funds that would yield returns by avoiding costs related to climate change, air pollution, ecological damage, and health impacts. For context, the global economy and financial markets are valued at US$110 trillion per year.

G20 members, who are responsible for the majority of emissions, but yet to meet even their existing NDCs are also encouraged to take on the heaviest burden. The largest-emitting countries need to lead by significantly enhancing their actions and ambitions now and in future pledges.

In 2023, G20 members, excluding the African Union, accounted for 77% of global emissions. Adding the African Union as a permanent G20 member—more than doubling the number of represented countries from 44 to 99—only increases this share to 82%, underscoring the need for differentiated responsibilities among nations. Strengthened international support and enhanced climate finance will be crucial to ensure that climate and development goals are equitably achieved across G20 members and globally.

The report also outlines how to ensure that updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are well-designed, specific, and transparent to meet any new targets. NDCs should encompass all gases listed in the Kyoto Protocol, address all sectors, establish clear targets, clarify conditional and unconditional elements, and provide transparency regarding how the submission represents a fair share of effort and the highest possible ambition.

Additionally, NDCs must explain how national sustainable development goals can be achieved alongside emission reduction efforts and include detailed implementation plans with mechanisms for review and accountability. For emerging markets and developing economies, the NDCs should specify the international support and financing they require.