Until recently, I would have confidently concluded that Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and the NPP would be beaten hands down by any NDC candidate in the 2028 general elections.

Today, after nearly two decades in journalism and a front-row seat to Ghana’s political twists and turns, I dare not make such a declaration—especially with elections still three years away.

The easy analysis is tempting. Ghanaians often give governments two terms. The NPP, under President Akufo-Addo, performed poorly by many objective measures, and Dr Bawumia was part of that government. On the surface, that should naturally tilt the scale in favour of the NDC.

But politics, especially Ghanaian politics, has taught me humility.

Over the last decade and more, major, unforeseen events have repeatedly disrupted neat political calculations—and that’s why I tread cautiously.

Take 2012. Based on my own assessment, I had concluded that the Atta-Mills-led NDC government was heading for defeat. Performance issues were obvious. Then the unthinkable happened: the sudden death of a sitting President. That single historic event dramatically altered the political landscape.

Vice President John Mahama became flagbearer, sympathy votes kicked in, and the election swung. Mahama won—but narrowly. Just 50.70% to Nana Akufo-Addo’s 47.74%. That result alone should remind us how fragile predictions can be.

Under the Fourth Republic, who predicted a hung Parliament that would significantly weaken a sitting government? Or a scenario where one party would command nearly one-third of Parliament?

Who foresaw Alan Kyerematen’s second exit from the NPP, the formation of a new party, and how that reshaped electoral outcomes?

Even within the NPP’s recent internal elections, the strong showing of Bryan Acheampong over more publicly anticipated figures surprised many observers. Politics keeps springing surprises—often when we least expect them.

Yes, there are many reasons people argue that Bawumia cannot become President. But let’s be honest: similar conclusions were once drawn about Nana Akufo-Addo. History tells us how that ended—two full terms.

I remember how many analysts dismissed John Dramani Mahama ahead of Ghana’s 2024 elections. After losing twice (2016 and 2020), he came back and achieved the biggest political comeback in our democratic history, defeating the NPP flagbearer decisively.

Before that election, some voices on social media and in political circles were adamant that Mahama could never return to power, with some even staking their reputation on it. But the Ghanaian people had a very different view at the ballot box, demonstrating that predictions made years ahead often miss the reality of voter sentiment, economic conditions, and political dynamics.

Mahama secured about 56.5 % of the valid votes against Dr Mahamudu Bawumia’s roughly 41.6 %, overturning expectations and proving that elections aren’t decided years in advance — they’re decided at the ballot box.

That is why I find it surprising, and frankly premature, that some—especially within the NDC—are already writing off Dr Bawumia.

A second consecutive NDC term in 2028 will not happen automatically. Performance in government will matter—but so will unforeseen events, internal party dynamics, candidate selection, and how effectively the opposition reorganises itself.

The NDC’s own flagbearer race will be just as decisive as its governance record over the next three years.

Three years is a long time in politics. Predicting the 2028 outcome now is, at best, a gamble. At worst, a farce.

Anybody can win.

Bawumia’s emergence as the PP flagbearer should serve as a wake-up call to the NDC. It raises the stakes and leaves no room for complacency. Momentum must be protected, governance must deliver, and political strategy must be sharp.

Politics rewards preparedness—and punishes assumptions.

As a journalist deeply interested in politics and governance, I’ve learned one thing: in Ghanaian elections, certainty is the first casualty.

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Disclaimer: The author, Ebenezer Afanyi Dadzie, is an Assistant Editor at Myjoyonline. The views expressed in this article are solely his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the organisation.

Email: enadadzie@gmail.com