Fitch Solutions, research arm of ratings agency, Fitch and Databank Research are forecasting slightly different end year rate of the cedi to the dollar as most forex bureaux are selling the local currency at ¢6 to a dollar.
Whilst Fitch Solutions is projecting ¢6.32 pesewas to a dollar by the end of the year, Databank Research is predicting ¢6.14 pesewas, about 3 percentage point’s depreciation.
Fitch attributed a rebound of the global economy which will stimulate economic activities, as the rationale behind its end-year cedi to dollar rate of ¢6.32, a little above 4% depreciation.
Databank on the other hand said the recent portfolio-induced pressure tampered with its earlier optimism. However, it believes the cedi should remain supported by the gross forex reserves of about $10.99 billion.
“We expect the annual international syndicated cocoa loan to provide an additional buffer in fourth quarter 2021 to sustain the stability of the cedi. The expected disbursement of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDR) also bodes well for the gross forex reserves and the cedi in second-half of 2021.”
Forex Bureaux sell dollar at ¢6
Joy Business gathered that the forex bureaux begun selling the local currency at ¢6 to a dollar almost one month ago though it is going for about ¢5.94 pesewas on the interbank forex market.
This is because demand for the American currency has shot up.
However, the pricing could have even been higher, but for the intervention of the Bank of Ghana whose bi-weekly Forex Forward Auction has aided the supply of dollars to the market to meet the rising demand.
Despite all this, the cedi has lost only about 0.6% so far this year, according to the Central Bank.
Most analysts believe the outlook is promising despite the recent pressures. This is largely because of the expected improved exports, strong international reserves and the upcoming COCOBOD syndication in September this year.
Cedi depreciates only 0.6% to dollar in 7-months of 2021 – BoG
The Bank of Ghana said the Ghana cedi lost a paltry 0.6% to the US dollar.
According to the Central Bank, the cedi recorded 0.5% gain in April 2021, same as March 2021 and 0.2% appreciation in May 2021.
In June 2021, it however registered no change in value to the American ‘greenback’ but lost 0.6% in value to the world’s most important currency.
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