Audio By Carbonatix
A large asteroid whose chances of hitting Earth have been all but ruled out is now slightly more likely to hit the Moon than previously thought, Nasa says.
When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small chance of impacting Earth in 2032 but the US space agency has cut that chance to 0.004%.
It has now reported though, that the likelihood of a Moon impact on 22 December, 2032, has more than doubled from 1.7% to 3.8%. It based the recalculation on information from telescopes including the James Webb Space Telescope.
"There is still a 96.2% chance that the asteroid will miss the Moon," Nasa said in a statement, noting that even if it did make impact, it wouldn't change the Moon's orbit.
Webb's infrared observations also helped to narrow the estimate of the asteroid's size to be between 53-67 meters - about the size of a 10-storey building.
In the time since 2024 YR4 was first spotted through a telescope in the desert in Chile in December, tens of other objects have passed closer to Earth than the Moon.
It is likely that others, albeit much smaller, have hit us or burned up in the atmosphere but gone unnoticed.
A lunar impact, although extremely unlikely, could offer a rare chance to observe a real collision and study how the Moon responds.
Professor Mark Burchell, Professor of Space Science at the University of Kent, told the New Scientist magazine that a Moon hit would be "a great experiment and a perfect opportunity".
"Telescopes would certainly see it, and binoculars might," he added.
Webb will observe the asteroid again next month for further analysis.
Latest Stories
-
Five best young players at AFCON 2025
4 minutes -
The creatives we need: Disruptors and revolutionaries
13 minutes -
GoldBod formalisation yields $3.8bn in FX, far outweighs BoG losses – Report
15 minutes -
Bank of Ghana relieved of gold trading burden by GoldBod
23 minutes -
Agricultural Value Chains and Export Competitiveness: Transforming Ghana Beyond Cocoa
37 minutes -
First Atlantic Bank secures regulatory approval to operate in Liberia
52 minutes -
Today’s Front pages: Monday, January 12, 2026
56 minutes -
Presidential staffers effectively serve as deputy ministers; Mahama not running a lean gov’t – Miracles Aboagye
1 hour -
Show restraint after Ayawaso East MP’s death; succession talk premature – Walewale MP
1 hour -
Beyond Gold Trading: Study says GoldBod can reshape Ghana’s economic architecture
1 hour -
Cost of living has worsened under NDC after one year – Dennis Miracles Aboagye
1 hour -
GoldBod emerges as strategic tool for forex stability and economic resilience – Report
1 hour -
Sanity Africa Poll: Ken Agyapong commands majority 52% ahead of NPP primaries
2 hours -
Tuah-Yeboah questions AG’s basis for dropping Saglemi case
2 hours -
IDEG calls for collective action for constitutional reforms
2 hours
