Cocoa prices are forecast to range between $4,882 and $4,922 per tonne in March 2024.

According to the Bank of Ghana’s Commodity Price Outlook, cocoa prices are projected to derive support from tight supplies and adverse weather conditions in Cote d’Ivoire, which is threatening the April-to-September 2023 mid-crop year.

Cocoa extended the price gains by 4.9% to reach $4,235.6 per tonne in December 2023, underscored by tightening supplies and expectation of a third successive deficit in the current crop season.

Compared to a year earlier, cocoa prices have soared by over 66.0%, mainly due to bad weather conditions, black pod disease and inadequate fertilizers, which have combined to weaken supply.

Brent crude outlook to depend on growth in China, USA

For Brent crude, the report said, the outlook will continue to derive support from optimism about growth in China and the United States of America, following the latest International Monetary Forecast growth forecast.

Also, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of new voluntary production cuts by OPEC+ might lend further support to prices.

Meanwhile, benchmark Brent crude oil prices averaged $77.26 per barrel in December 2023, down by 5.8% from the previous month.

The decrease in prices was on the back of low energy demand in the United States and China amid easing concerns of supply disruptions following tensions in the Red Sea. Relative to December 2022, Brent crude prices dropped by 5.0% with reduced volatility throughout the year.

The average Brent crude prices in 2023 was $82.2 per barrel, compared to $98.8 per barrel in 2022, mainly due to concerns over slow global growth.

Gold prices to remain firm

Gold prices also are likely to remain firm in the near term on the back of expectations of rate cuts and safe haven appeal occasioned by escalation of geopolitical tension in the Middle East.

Spot gold gained 2.6% to close at an average price of $2,035.43 per fine ounce in December 2023.

Gold prices were supported by the weak dollar and falling bond yields after U.S. economic data fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates in March 2024. In year-on-year terms, gold prices increased by 13.3% in 2023, compared to December 2022.

For 2023, prices of gold averaged $1,943.7 per ounce, higher than $1,801.4 per fine ounce in 2022, driven by expectations of a pause in interest rate hikes.