A senior researcher at Kumasi Technical University (KTU), Professor Smart Sarpong, has outlined key factors that contribute to electoral defeat, stressing that perceived failure, dishonesty, and disappointment among supporters often determine the fate of political parties.

Discussing electoral outcomes on JoyNews’ AM Show on 19 March, Professor Smart Sarpong said governments typically lose elections based on three main considerations.

“I think generally what we must assess are the strengths and weaknesses of any government,” he noted. “But fundamentally, governments lose elections based on three things. One is perceived as a failure. If people believe you have failed, they will vote against you.”

He identified dishonesty, or what he described as "mendacity," as the second factor, explaining that when a government is seen as inconsistent or as having abandoned its pre-election positions, public trust erodes.

“The third factor is disappointment,” he added, noting that this particularly affects party loyalists. “Supporters whose expectations are not met may choose not to vote at all. And in elections, failing to vote is effectively the same as voting for the opposition.”

According to him, such voter apathy among party supporters can be decisive in tightly contested elections.

Applying these principles to the current political landscape, Prof. Sarpong highlighted key areas that could shape electoral outcomes. On perceived failure, he pointed to illegal mining (galamsey) and job creation as major concerns.

However, he acknowledged that some economic indicators could work in the government’s favour. He cited exchange rate stability and improvements in the cost of living as positive developments.

“My recent citizen perception survey suggests that 68.8 percent of Ghanaians believe the cost of living has stabilised or moderated over the past year,” he said. “Together with exchange rate performance and inflation management, these are positives that could help the government.”

Despite these gains, Prof. Sarpong questioned whether such improvements are fully appreciated by the general population.

“The real issue is how many people actually understand these benefits. Given literacy levels, many may not connect exchange rate stability to their daily lives,” he observed.

Beyond macroeconomic indicators, he stressed that everyday experiences with public institutions also play a critical role in shaping voter perceptions. He cited inefficiencies at the Driver and Vehicle Licensing Authority (DVLA) as an example.

“In the past, you could register your vehicle and receive your number plate the same day. Now, it can take up to two weeks. That is a step backwards,” he said. “Even temporary licences are now printed on ordinary A4 paper, which undermines public confidence.”

He warned that such seemingly minor inconveniences could significantly influence voter sentiment. “These everyday experiences shape public perception and can cost votes on election day,” he emphasised.

While urging the government to consolidate its economic gains, he cautioned against ignoring service delivery challenges. “Even if the macro indicators are strong, the government must not appear to be failing in the eyes of the people,” he said.

Beyond governance outcomes, Prof. Sarpong also raised structural concerns about parliamentary effectiveness, linking them to overall political performance and public accountability. He suggested limiting the size of the majority caucus to improve efficiency and oversight.

“I believe the majority in Parliament should not exceed 150 members,” he proposed. “Large majorities can weaken oversight, as some MPs may feel constrained from holding ministers accountable, especially those on the backbench.”

He noted that internal party dynamics can sometimes prevent MPs from raising critical constituency issues. “Leadership often seeks to manage exposure of weaknesses, and as a result, some vital concerns are not addressed,” he said.

According to him, this contributes to declining public confidence and may partly explain why parties with large parliamentary majorities sometimes lose seats in subsequent elections.

Prof. Sarpong concluded that a careful balance between economic performance, effective governance, and responsiveness to citizens’ everyday concerns will ultimately determine electoral success.