Fitch Solutions is expecting El Niño’s adverse weather conditions to place downward pressure on the 2026/27 cocoa output, forecasting cocoa production of 1.7 million tonnes in Côte d’Ivoire and 670,000 tonnes in Ghana.

This implies greater near-term supply pressure in Côte d’Ivoire, where output is forecast to decline by 17.5% year-on-year, while Ghana’s production is expected to remain flat, the UK-based firm said.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It disrupts normal global weather systems, triggering extreme conditions like severe droughts, heavy rainfall, and heatwaves across different parts of the world.

“We view the dominance of smallholder farmers as another factor increasing supply vulnerability, as smallholders have limited capacity to absorb weather and input shocks. Limited access to irrigation, financing and yield-enhancing technologies leaves production exposed to erratic rainfall. Reduced fertiliser effectiveness in drier conditions could discourage fertiliser application as farmers seek to avoid input wastage, while existing disruption to fertiliser availability and prices linked to the US-Iran conflict further constrains usage”, Fitch Solutions said.

As the main-crop fertiliser application window typically falls around September, it pointed out that these pressures could have a more immediate impact on 2026/27 output than previously assumed, adding to near-term downside risk.

“We view the mid-crop harvest to be less exposed to El Niño-induced input pressures than the main crop, as fertiliser applications for the late-2026 mid-crop would have taken place around April 2026”.

Supply Vulnerabilities to Amplify Weather-Driven Supply Risks

Fitch Solution also expects Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire’s structural supply constraints to magnify El Niño-related downside risks to cocoa output.

“Ageing tree stocks in both markets limit yield potential and increase disease susceptibility, leaving production more exposed to below-average rainfall and warmer temperatures”.

It concluded that drier conditions are likely to further weaken tree health and raise pest and disease pressures, increasing the risk of sharper output losses.