The dynamics of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) 2028 flagbearership race have shifted dramatically in just two months, with Chief of Staff Julius Debrah suffering the steepest drop in support, and National Chairman Johnson Asiedu Nketiah consolidating his lead.

That is according to a new nationwide survey by Africa Policy Lens (APL) conducted between June 24 and July 3, 2026, which also said Education Minister Haruna Iddrisu made a big surge into second place.

The poll of 3,540 Constituency and Branch Executives across all 276 constituencies shows a race that has moved from a tight two-person contest in April to a more defined three-way battle.

In April, Debrah was polling at 30.1%, just behind Nketiah and widely seen as a top contender. However, the June report showed his support has collapsed to 9.7% - a drop of over 20 points. That decline coincided with gains for the top two, with Nketiah increasing his support from 31.9% to 33.8%, maintaining his position at the top.

But the biggest momentum was with Haruna Iddrisu, who jumped from 17.9% to 22.5% to claim second place.

Finance Minister Cassiel Ato Forson also made modest gains, rising from 13.0% to 15.1%.

“Delegate preferences have become increasingly consolidated around a new hierarchy,” APL stated in its executive summary.

The report identifies Nketiah as the candidate “most frequently perceived by delegates as the principal competitor,” while naming Iddrisu as the emerging principal challenger.

The survey suggests the decline and rise are not about visibility alone.

Delegates told APL they are prioritising four things above all: eperience and proven track record, personal integrity and honesty, ability to unite the party and gassroots appeal.

According to the survey, 84% of respondents said they are “very likely” to actively campaign for their preferred candidate, pointing to high engagement ahead of the 2027 primary.

Despite the new order, APL cautions that the contest “remains competitive and delegate preferences may continue to evolve as campaigns intensify.”

Both Iddrisu and Forson recorded gains between April and June, while Nketiah slightly extended his lead.

The survey used structured telephone interviews and targeted politically active constituency and branch executives with high electoral participation.

APL notes the findings are “a snapshot of grassroots sentiment during the period of data collection rather than a prediction of the eventual outcome.”

With the NDC expected to hold its presidential primary in 2027, the June poll provides the most comprehensive independent benchmark yet of where the grassroots currently stand.