Continued brisk economic activity and restrained price expectations should help the central bank stay its hand on the policy rate as its monetary-policy committee begins deliberations this week. The bank has held its benchmark interest rate at 12.5 percent since July, as economic activity firmed up and uncertainty surrounded the impact of an announcement of public-sector wage hikes in June. “We think it’s more likely that rates will remain on hold for now. If there’s a risk in this scenario, it is that they cut rates again,” said Razia Khan of Standard Chartered Bank’s Africa research division after the release of inflation data, which showed prices remain stable ahead of the holiday season. November inflation slowed marginally to 8.55 percent according to the data, and the Ghana Statistical Service said the central bank is on course to meet its inflation target. Contrary to some analysts’ forecasts, the weak cedi is yet to trigger an uptick in inflation as continued stable food prices have dampened the impact of pressures on the non-food basket. The cedi has slipped to record lows since August, and Treasuries have risen in recent weeks under a global cloud of uncertainty and persisting currency and debt risks in the Eurozone. A five-year fixed-rate bond that was issued on December 8 sold at an average yield of 15.9 percent, up from 14.25 percent when the issue was first auctioned in August. The GH¢500 million bond was targetted mainly for key infrastructure projects in Accra and Kumasi. Last week, the central bank said confidence indicators for businesses and consumers diverged in the third quarter, but it found economic activity to be generally brisk -- consistent with the 13.6 percent GDP growth projection for this year. Overall business confidence fell slightly in the last survey, dropping 0.8 points to 103.3, with enterprises worried by the weak currency and bad industry prospects. Consumer sentiments were more upbeat, with the overall index up by 1.46 percentage points to 103.58. Better welfare expectations contributed to the growth, the central bank said. The outlook for next year points to strong GDP growth -- 9.4 percent according to the 2012 budget -- and stable inflation prospects, with elevated risks in the first quarter when pump prices could potentially be adjusted to roll-back rising subsidies. In the banking sector, the non-performing loans (NPL) ratio dropped to 16 percent in August, while the NPL ratio net of provision to capital improved from 13.2 percent to 12.1 percent. Banks’ assets meanwhile grew by 28.9 percent in August compared to a year ago, and banks held a total loan-book of GH¢7.11billion, a year-on-year growth of 14 percent. Deposits expanded by 39.8 percent from GH¢9.91 billion in August 2010 to GH¢13.85 billion in August 2011. High NPLs have hindered credit expansion in the last two years, with generally expensive borrowing rates in the banking system. The commerce & finance sector remains the biggest source of NPLs, followed by services and manufacturing. The central bank worried in its report that NPLs continue to be a major source of concern to solvency in the industry, with some banks forced to increase loan-loss provisions this year.