The Ghana Reference Rate (GRR) for February 2026 is expected to decline to about 14.58 per cent, from the current rate of 15.68 per cent for January.

This projection is based on JOYBUSINESS’ calculations, which use industry data applied by financial sector players to determine the Ghana Reference Rate.

The expected decline could result in a marginal reduction in interest rates charged by commercial banks from now through early March 2026.

Basis for the Projection

JOYBUSINESS’ calculations factor in the key variables used in deriving the Ghana Reference Rate. These include:

• 91-day Treasury bill rate: 11.19 per cent (end of January)
• Interbank rate: 14.91 per cent (January value)
• Monetary Policy Rate: 15.5 per cent

Applying these indicators to the standard GRR formula suggests a drop of about 1.1 percentage points, bringing the February rate to 14.58 per cent.

If commercial banks do not introduce additional charges, the Ghana Reference Rate to be announced in February could settle around this projected level.

Policy Rate Influence

The projected decline is largely linked to the recent cut in the Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Rate to 15.5 per cent, which is expected to exert downward pressure on the Ghana Reference Rate for February 2026.

Industry players, including commercial banks, are expected to release the official February GRR following the central bank’s policy rate adjustment.

Bankers Urge Caution

The Chief Executive Officer of the Ghana Association of Banks, John Awuah, in an interview with JOYBUSINESS, urged the public to manage expectations regarding the extent of any reduction in the Ghana Reference Rate.

He explained that several variables are considered in computing the GRR, in addition to the policy rate.

Mr Awuah, however, noted that commercial banks remain committed to reviewing their lending rates once the new Ghana Reference Rate is announced.

He also rejected claims that banks have failed to respond adequately to policy rate cuts, noting that data over the past year indicate a significant downward movement in the Ghanaian Reference Rate.

Background

The Ghana Reference Rate, a key benchmark for setting lending rates by commercial banks, was last reviewed downward on January 7, 2026.

The rate was cut from 15.9 per cent in December 2025 to 15.68 per cent, effective January 7, 2026.

In December 2025, the GRR fell to 15.9 per cent following a 350-basis-point reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate to 18 per cent, alongside a slight decline in Treasury bill rates.

In November 2025, the GRR rose marginally to 17.96 per cent from 17.86 per cent, driven by slight increases in Treasury bill rates—from 10.50 per cent to 10.67 per cent—and interbank rates, which rose from 20.93 per cent to 21 per cent.

In October 2025, the GRR declined by 2 percentage points, from 19.86 per cent in September, continuing a downward trend observed throughout the year.

The rate, which stood at 29.72 per cent in January 2025, rose slightly to 29.96 per cent in February before declining steadily to 19.67 per cent by August 2025.

Implications for Borrowers

Loans contracted in January 2026 at variable rates are likely to be benchmarked against the new Ghana Reference Rate.

This means interest payments on new loans may be lower than in previous months.

The Ghana Reference Rate was introduced in 2017 by the Bank of Ghana and the Ghana Association of Banks as a transparent benchmark for determining lending rates.

The maiden rate, announced in April 2017, was 16.82%.

Developed following extensive consultations, the GRR replaced the prior base-rate model to promote transparency, consistency, and fairness in loan pricing across the financial sector.

Expected Impact

If the Ghana Reference Rate declines as projected, it could lower borrowing costs and overall interest rates in the economy over the next month.

Since the GRR serves as a benchmark for loan pricing, commercial banks may adjust lending rates downward from January 2026 levels of around 22 per cent.

Loans contracted in February 2026 are likely to be benchmarked on the new GRR.

Borrowers on fixed-rate loans will not be affected, whereas those on variable-rate loans may experience modest reductions in interest payments.

The development comes at a time when many businesses are struggling to access credit amid a liquidity squeeze, partly due to Bank of Ghana measures aimed at curbing inflation and stabilising the economy.

The President of the Ghana National Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Stephane Miezan, has noted that the major challenge facing businesses is not only the cost of credit, but limited access to financing from commercial banks.

He warned that the situation has contributed to the collapse of some businesses.