The political ambitions of Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, face a significant hurdle as new data suggests his support base in the Ayawaso East NDC primary has hit a rigid ceiling.

According to a final pre-election projection by Global InfoAnalytics, the veteran politician and former MP for Akwatia is unlikely to secure more than 38 per cent of the delegate vote in today’s crucial primary, Saturday, 7th February 2026.

The findings, presented by the Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, place Baba Jamal’s main rival, Hajia Amina Adam, in a commanding position.

Hajia Amina, the widow of the late Member of Parliament for the area, Mahama Naser Toure, is projected to secure approximately 54 per cent of the total votes cast, effectively clinching the party’s ticket in a single round of voting.

Mr Dankwah explained that the projection for Baba Jamal represents his highest share even under the most optimistic conditions for his campaign.

The data shows that despite Baba Jamal’s significant political experience and his recent high-profile return from Abuja to contest the seat, he has struggled to erode the broad grassroots appeal of the incumbent's widow.

“Mr Dankwah noted that even under the most favourable conditions for Baba Jamal, the data show a significant gap between the two leading contenders, making a dramatic late shift in voter preference improbable,” the report stated.

The forecast carries a margin of error of approximately 3.2 per cent, meaning that even if the results swing in the High Commissioner's favour at the narrowest end of the range, he would still trail by a double-digit margin.

A critical factor in Baba Jamal’s projected underperformance appears to be the failure of a specific campaign narrative.

The pollster investigated whether the move to challenge the widow was seen as controversial or whether the narrative that she should not contest was gaining traction. The results were overwhelming:

• NDC Faithful: 66 per cent of general party members disagreed with the notion that it was wrong for Hajia Amina to contest.
• Delegates: 58 per cent of the actual voting block also rejected the narrative that she should be prevented from running.

“So both the delegates and the party faithful disagree with that call, which suggests that some people are pushing a narrative that is not selling, yet they keep promoting it,” Mr Dankwah remarked. He further suggested that the Jamal campaign may have fundamentally misread the local sentiment in Nima and Kanda, stating, “I think they miscalculated the dynamics of Ayawaso.”

While Baba Jamal's projected 38 per cent represents a solid block of support—reflecting his standing as a legal practitioner and former Deputy Minister—it appears insufficient to overcome the "sympathy plus continuity" factor driving the Hajia Amina campaign.

The pollster’s final assessment remains firm: “Based on that, I project Hajia to win with about 54%, while Baba Jamal’s highest share will be around 38%,” he said.

With the polls opening this morning at the Nima Cluster of Schools, the eyes of the nation are on whether Baba Jamal can defy the statistical odds and break through the 40 per cent barrier, or whether the Global InfoAnalytics projection will hold as a definitive epitaph to his 2026 parliamentary bid.