Audio By Carbonatix
As many as 190,000 people across Africa could die in the first year of the coronavirus pandemic if crucial containment measures fail, the World Health Organization (WHO) warns.
The new research also predicts a prolonged outbreak over a few years.
"It likely will smoulder in transmission hot spots," says WHO Africa head Matshidiso Moeti.
This patchier and slower pattern of transmission sets Africa apart from other regions, WHO experts say.
Other factors taken into account are the region's younger populations who have "benefitted from the control of communicable diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis", as well as lower mortality rates.
The WHO's warning comes as Africa's most populous nation, Nigeria, plus others including South Africa and Ivory Coast, have begun relaxing some of their lockdown measures.
What does the study say?
The study finds that between 29 million and 44 million people in the WHO African region could get infected in the first year of the pandemic. Between 83,000 and 190,000 could die in the same period, it warns.
The estimates are based on prediction modelling, and focus on 47 countries in the WHO African region with a combined population of one billion - Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Morocco, Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia and Djibouti are not included.
Across the whole of the African continent more than 2,000 coronavirus deaths have been recorded by Africa's Centre for Disease Control. By comparison, 140,000 have died in Western Europe, where the virus took hold several weeks earlier.
Cases have been recorded in every African nation except Lesotho.
South Africa has the highest number of confirmed cases - more than 8,200 and 160 deaths - while Algeria has the most deaths - 483.
"Covd-19 could become a fixture in our lives for the next several years unless a proactive approach is taken by many governments in the region," Dr Moeti says in a WHO statement.
"We need to test, trace, isolate and treat."
Latest Stories
-
He entered at eight. He is now 16: Ghana’s children growing up in prayer camps
2 hours -
‘Development must not always begin from Accra’ — Anwelle Foundation launched in Jirapa
2 hours -
PKO trio eye victories at Odwira Festival
5 hours -
346 Ghana Navy recruits pass out after 26 weeks of intensive training
5 hours -
Newsfile to discuss EOCO-MP arrest, drug trafficking, speech arrests and $235m water debt
5 hours -
JoyNews gets results as listeners raise GH¢40,000 to help 17-year-old student with cerebral palsy attend SHS
6 hours -
Vice President calls for stronger local pharmaceutical production to reduce medicine imports
6 hours -
The brewing tension at KNUST; Beware the Ides of October….
6 hours -
Health Ministry moves to integrate traditional medicine into mainstream healthcare
7 hours -
550 pupils in Kintampo South get educational lifeline as ‘Seeds of Hope’ reaches farming communities
7 hours -
Opoku Mensah urges Christian Council, House of Chiefs to speak up on democratic freedoms
7 hours -
Teacher unions’ strike: Minority demands immediate payment of teacher arrears, 20% deprived area allowance
7 hours -
The Accra-Kumasi Expressway: Building it right
8 hours -
Beyond gold exports: Building value and economic resilience from Ghana’s gold
8 hours -
2027 AFCONQ: Ghana under pressure as Gambia beat Somalia 2-1
8 hours