Ghana’s macroeconomic stability faces a critical test in 2026 as the IMF-supported Extended Credit Facility concludes mid-year, removing an external anchor for fiscal discipline, according to EM Advisory.

The advisory notes that Ghana has historically experienced post-programme fiscal slippage, with wage bill expansion, overspending, and revenue shortfalls following IMF exits.

“The single most significant risk to Ghana’s 2026 outlook is a return to fiscal indiscipline once the programme ends,” the report warned.

The government projects overall expenditure at 18.9% of GDP and revenue at 16.8%, with a primary surplus of 1.5% on a commitment basis.

Analysts emphasise that tight control of discretionary spending is essential, given structural rigidities where compensation, interest payments, and statutory transfers account for 70% of total expenditure.

External shocks, such as commodity price reversals or regional instability, could exacerbate fiscal pressures. The advisory urges disciplined execution of flagship programmes while prioritising high-value investments that strengthen service delivery and growth.

“Execution discipline will determine whether the recent gains from consolidation hold or slip,” it said.

EM Advisory concludes that 2026 represents a historic opportunity for Ghana to demonstrate fiscal credibility and break the boom-and-bust cycle.

“The government has the political space and stabilised economy to implement difficult reforms. 2026 is a year to prove it can sustain fiscal discipline independently,” the report said.