Headline inflation is expected to go down to the medium-term target of 8 ± 2% by the end of 2025, the Bank of Ghana has revealed in its Inflation Risk Assessment and Outlook.

According to the Central Bank, this is reflecting the impact of monetary policy tightening, the appreciation of the cedi, and the ongoing fiscal consolidation.

Moreover, it said supply-side pressures have eased, reducing their contribution to food and headline inflation. In the outlook, risks to inflation are tilted to the downside.

However, the upside risks remain, including broader supply chain challenges, global trade tensions, a 2.5% upward adjustment in utility tariffs, and the introduction of a new 1.0% energy levy on ex-pump prices, which could impact inflation.

Going forward, the Bank of Ghana said the exchange rate stability is expected to persist, supported by significant improvements in the external sector. These improvements have led to the accumulation of international reserves, far exceeding the ECF-supported program target, which will further aid the disinflation process.

Additionally, factors such as a tight monetary policy stance, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and stable crude oil prices could help offset the upside risks to disinflation.

Year-on-year inflation eased to 9.4% in September 2025, fueled by a significant drop in food inflation.

It was the 9^th consecutive month decline.