Energy

IMF forecasts $40-50 crude oil price for 2021

The International Monetary Fund is forecasting the price of crude oil in the range of 40 to 50 dollars per barrel next year. 

This will not come as a good omen for the Ghanaian economy since oil price before covid-19 had been trading above $60.

The government of Ghana had projected $62 per barrel of crude oil in its 2020 Budget.

But covid-19 pandemic had made the forecast unachievable. Presently, a barrel of crude oil is hovering around $40 per barrel.

The IMF in its forecast said the outlook for oil demand remains grim amid new waves of coronavirus and uncertainty about U.S. fiscal stimulus and the U.S. presidential election. 

Brent crude stood at $42.64 per barrel this morning in London. The Fund does not see oil prices staging a dramatic recovery anytime soon

“The projections for oil prices are in the corridor between $40 to $45 for early next year, and will be between $40 to $50” next year overall, Jihad Azour, Director of the IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department, said.

“I think what is going to be also important to watch is the recovery in demand. That proved to be an important factor in what we saw this year, in addition to the supply that could come from alternative energies.”

Trend of crude oil price for 2020

Crude oil started this year at $63.7 per barrel but fell to $55.5 in February 2020 and again dropped significantly to $33.7 in March 2020, about 48% change. This was at the time covid-19 had started biting global economies.

At the beginning of the second quarter of 2020, the ‘black gold’ commodity went down further to $26.6 in April 2020 but shot up to $32.1 in May. It dramatically inched up again to $40.8 despite.

It has since been hovering around the $40 bracket as it traded at $43.2 and $45 in July and August 2020 respectively.

Revenue from crude oil

Despite the presence of covid-19, the nation bagged $1.93 billion in the first eight months of this year.

This is compared with $1.7 billion earnings from exports of cocoa beans.

Oil imports was however estimated at $1.2 billion, according to the September 2020 Summary of Economic and Financial Data.