Ghana is at a heightened risk of cocoa smuggling following Ivory Coast’s recent decision to raise its farmgate price for cocoa, surpassing Ghana's rate. This move by the world's largest cocoa producer aims to discourage the illicit export of beans, yet it poses significant challenges for Ghana's cocoa industry.

Ivory Coast’s Minister of Agriculture, Kobenan Kouassi Adjoumani, announced in Abidjan that the farmgate price will increase by 20% from 1,500 CFA francs (approximately GH₵ 40) to 1,800 CFA francs (about GH₵ 48) per kilogram, effective October 1, 2024.

This new rate translates to roughly GHS 3,072 per 64 kg bag of cocoa, slightly higher than Ghana’s GH₵3,000 per bag. The price hike is intended to prevent the smuggling of cocoa to Ghana. However, it may not completely address illegal exports to other neighbouring countries like Liberia and Guinea, where buyers offer prices closer to the global market rate.

During the 2023/2024 season, Ivory Coast reportedly lost between 150,000 to 200,000 tons of cocoa to smuggling, according to Bloomberg.

Implications for Ghana

Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, has been battling similar issues. Reports from Reuters indicate that low local prices and payment delays have driven some farmers to sell their cocoa to sophisticated smuggling networks. In the 2023/2024 season, Ghana lost approximately 160,000 metric tons of cocoa to smuggling, an increase from 150,000 tons the previous season.

Ghana's lower prices compared to neighbouring countries like Côte d'Ivoire, which charged around GHS 2,560 per bag in 2023/2024 —GH₵ 490 more than Ghana—encouraged smuggling

To mitigate this, the Ghana Cocoa Board (Cocobod) increased its farmgate price by 45% for the 2024/2025 season, from GH₵ 2,070 to GHS 3,000 per 64 kg bag.

However, Ghana’s attempt to combat smuggling with higher farmgate prices may prove futile. Ivory Coast's recent price increase could negate Ghana’s efforts, as their prices still offer a more lucrative option for smugglers.

Ghana’s Production Dynamics

Poor harvests in Ghana and Ivory Coast have contributed to a four-year supply deficit in the global cocoa market, driving up cocoa and chocolate prices. Unfortunately, Ghana has not benefited from these higher global prices due to rampant smuggling.

By June 2023, Ghana's cocoa production had dropped to 429,323 metric tons, less than 55% of the average at the same point in previous seasons. This marks the largest decline in over two decades.