A recent study is projecting the National Democratic Congress (NDC) to lead in 11 regions in the upcoming December 7 polls.

According to research conducted by SBM Intelligence, the New Patriotic Party's (NPP) share of votes in its stronghold, the Ashanti Region, is expected to decrease slightly.

This development comes as political parties intensify efforts to rally their supporters with just three months left before the presidential and parliamentary elections.

“In the elections, the NDC is projected to secure victory in 11 regions, including all three swing regions, leaving only five regions for the NPP," the September 2024 report showed.

The NDC is expected to face stiff competition from the NPP in the Northern, Western North and Oti regions.

Historically, the Ashanti Region has shown a significant level of loyalty to the governing NPP.

But in this year’s election, the “NPP is projected to win around 70.5% of the votes in Ashanti, down from the 72.8% it garnered in the 2020 presidential election."

Additionally, in the 2024 Presidential election, "the NDC is expected to easily maintain three (Upper East, Upper West, and Savannah) out of the five regions and battle the NPP for the Northern region."

"In the North East, Bawumia’s candidacy is expected to help the NPP maintain its win and improve its vote share from 51.40% to 55.8%."

The data in this report - dubbed 'Ghana's 2024 elections: A preview' is only up-to-date as of Thursday, September 12, 2024.

Earlier this month, over 20 presidential aspirants successfully submitted their forms to the Electoral Commission (EC) to contest the election.

• Read also: 22 candidates file nominations for Dec. 7 election, 2 await EC decision

This follows the emergence of new candidates that are gradually gaining ground to take power.

On this score, the research suggested that “many Ghanaians wonder about the ability of the emerging third forces to challenge the two big parties.”

“The prevailing view is that, at best, these smaller parties might succeed in pushing the election to a runoff.”

SBM Intelligence is an Africa-focused geopolitical research and strategic communications consulting firm that addresses the critical need for political, social, economic, and market data and big data analytics.

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