Executive Director of Global Info Analytics, Mussa Dankwah, has reacted to the victory of Mohammed Baba Jamal Ahmed in the Ayawaso East NDC primary on Saturday, February 7, contrary to earlier projections.

Baba Jamal, Ghana's High Commissioner to Nigeria, won with 431 votes to secure 45%, with his closest contender, Hajia Amina Adam, securing 399 votes (41%).

Mr Dankwah took to social media after the declaration of results by the Electoral Commission (EC), which pronounced Baba Jamal as the winner, offering a detailed post-election analysis comparing the outcome with his firm’s Model 1 pre-primary predictions.

In a characteristically light-hearted tone, Mr Dankwah admitted that his projections fell short in some areas, stating, “In the just-ended NDC primaries in Ayawaso East, I was handed a defeat, but I will not issue any statement regardless,” before proceeding to unpack the numbers behind the miss.

According to Mr Dankwah, Global Info Analytics’ Model 1 operated within a ±3 per cent margin of error, and while some candidates’ performances aligned with expectations, others deviated significantly.

He explained that Muhammed Ramni, who polled about 9 per cent, fell within the projected margin of error, noting that the figure represented a combination of the base estimate and allowable deviation.

READ ALSO: Baba Jamal wins NDC Ayawaso East Primaries

Dr. Azindow and Najib Sani, Mr Dankwah added, also performed largely in line with predictions.

However, the biggest variances emerged with two leading contenders.

Hajia Amina, who was projected to secure 50 per cent, recorded 41 per cent, an underperformance of 9 per cent, placing her 6 per cent outside the model’s margin of error.

On the other hand, Baba Jamal, who was predicted to poll 38 per cent (potentially rising to 41 per cent within the error range), exceeded expectations by securing 45 per cent, placing him 4 per cent above the model’s upper limit.

Mr Dankwah stopped short of offering a definitive explanation for the discrepancies, instead inviting public interpretation.

Candidate Baba Jamal has allegedly been involved in vote-buying, with reports claiming he distributed 32-inch Nanco television sets to delegates ahead of the NDC Ayawaso primaries. pic.twitter.com/5SdGAcPSo2

— THE STATE NEWS (@THESTATENEWSS) February 7, 2026

In a closing comment laced with sarcasm and emojis, the pollster quipped, “It took to defeat science and data,” a statement widely interpreted by observers as tongue-in-cheek rather than a formal allegation, as no evidence was presented to support claims of inducement.

However, President John Dramani Mahama has ordered the immediate recall of Baba Jamal from his position as Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, following widespread allegations of vote-buying and bribery in the primary.

According to the Presidency, while allegations of vote-buying were made against multiple contestants, Baba Jamal was the only serving public officer among those who participated in the primary, making his situation distinct.

“The President noted that, while the allegations of vote-buying were made against multiple candidates who contested the primaries, Baba Jamal was the only serving public officer among them,” the statement said.

President Mahama also acknowledged a public statement by the NDC’s General Secretary released earlier, indicating that the party had commenced its own internal investigations into the allegations arising from the polls.

The campaign team of Baba Jamal had offered 32-inch televisions to delegates who participated in the primary in the Ayawaso East Constituency.

The team also distributed boiled eggs to delegates, a move that triggered brief jostling among some voters who attempted to access the food items.

Speaking to the media during the elections, Baba Jamal confirmed the distribution of the goodies but insisted that the gesture was not intended to influence voting decisions.

“So if you give television sets to people, what is wrong with it when you give things to people?” he asked. “Is this the first time I am giving things to people?”

He explained that his actions were consistent with his long-standing personal practice of supporting people financially and materially, stressing that generosity had always been part of his public life.

“Those of you who know me know that every Christmas, every occasion, every instance, I have put down GHS 2.5 million in free loans to give free loans to people,” he said. “So if today people are coming to vote and we are giving them something—what is wrong with that?”

Baba Jamal argued that the ethical issue was not the act of giving itself, but whether such gifts were allowed to influence voters’ choices.

• READ ALSO: Ayawaso East NDC Primary: Baba Jamal campaign distributes TV sets, food to delegates

“If somebody gives you a gift, you can take it,” he stated. “But allowing that gift to influence your vote is what is wrong. It is not the gift; it is allowing that gift to influence your vote that makes it wrong.”

He further justified the gesture as part of basic hospitality, noting that it would be unreasonable to gather delegates for an important political exercise without providing some form of support.

“You think you can bring all these people together and not give them water?” he asked. “It is not the item; it is the intention.”

The aspirant maintained that his campaign had focused primarily on engagement and dialogue rather than inducements, adding that he had interacted extensively with party members and delegates ahead of the primary.

“I don’t think that I have gone wrong,” he said. “I have spoken to them and met people. That is why I am still saying that I hope and trust that they will still reason with me and come along with me.”