The Bank of Ghana sold $1.4 billion in foreign exchange during the first quarter of 2025, according to the latest International Monetary Fund (IMF) review of Ghana’s programme.

“The Bank of Ghana’s footprint in the FX market continued to increase. Large-scale FX intervention continued in 2025, reaching $1.4 billion in the first quarter,” the Fund noted.

This marks a sharp acceleration in market activity, surpassing the total $1 billion the Bank injected across all of 2023. In 2024, interventions rose further to $3 billion, with $2 billion sold in the fourth quarter alone, ahead of the general election.

The IMF has urged the Bank to reduce its role in the foreign exchange market and allow for greater exchange rate flexibility. It also recommended the adoption of a formal internal intervention framework to improve transparency and predictability.

• Read also: Reduce interventions in the forex market – IMF to Bank of Ghana

When contacted by JoyNews Research in May 2025, Bank of Ghana officials attributed the elevated interventions to persistent dollar obligations in the energy sector.

These include monthly payments to independent power producers, fuel suppliers such as the West African Gas Pipeline Company, and importers of refined petroleum. Fuel imports alone average around $400 million per month, resulting in a quarterly demand of roughly $1.2 billion.

The Bank is nonetheless benefiting from strong foreign exchange inflows. Higher gold prices, increased domestic purchases under the gold purchase programme, improved remittances, and stronger cocoa earnings have lifted Ghana’s gross international reserves to $10.6 billion, equivalent to 4.7 months of import cover.

With this buffer, the Bank appears confident in continuing to support the cedi without threatening broader macroeconomic stability. The currency, which opened 2025 at 14.7 to the dollar, is now trading at 10.37, making it the best-performing currency globally so far this year.

Analysts attribute the rally partly to a weaker dollar under President Trump’s economic policies, but more significantly to Ghana’s tight fiscal stance and rising gold revenues. Still, the scale of the central bank’s interventions cannot be ignored.

At the current pace, the Bank could end the year having sold $5.6 billion in foreign exchange, nearly double the 2024 total. This would depend on a sustained pipeline of inflows, particularly from gold, where prices remain elevated.

But relying heavily on commodity windfalls is risky. Any drop in gold or cocoa prices could quickly expose the currency to pressure.

If reserves begin to falter or external shocks emerge, the risk of renewed depreciation rises. While fiscal and monetary discipline have helped so far, a more rules-based approach to forex management will be essential.

The IMF’s call for a structured internal policy reflects this view. Without it, Ghana risks swinging from intervention-led stability to sharp volatility if inflows fall short.

The cedi’s strength is encouraging. But without deliberate planning and clearer guardrails on intervention, the gains may prove fragile.