A new survey conducted by a team of academic researchers has placed former Assin Central MP, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, ahead of his rivals in the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) presidential primaries.

The poll, led by Dr Evans Duah, found that Mr Agyapong is projected to secure up to 52% of delegate support, depending on turnout and undecided voting patterns.

The study, conducted between 15 and 31 August 2025, engaged a sample of 20,356 delegates – representing roughly 10% of the total 203,562 registered delegates.

Using proportional extrapolation, researchers estimated that Mr Agyapong could command as many as 104,807 votes nationwide, giving him a decisive lead over Vice-President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, who polled around 31%.

Regional breakdowns revealed strongholds for each candidate, with Mr Agyapong performing well in the Central, Greater Accra, Volta and Ashanti regions, while Dr Bawumia retained dominance in the Northern, North East and Upper West regions.

Dr Bryan Acheampong maintained a base in the Eastern Region but scored only 9% nationally, with Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum and Kwabena Agyei Agyepong trailing at marginal levels. “South accounts for more than 40% of the delegates, which gives Kennedy Agyapong a decisive structural advantage,” Dr Duah explained.

The researchers, however, stressed that the findings were “indicative, not predictive.”

In a note of caution, Dr Duah highlighted limitations such as a 25% non-response rate and the possibility of shifts in delegate sentiment in the weeks ahead.

“Our analysis shows Kennedy Agyapong leading across all scenarios, but outcomes remain subject to campaign dynamics and late-breaking alignments,” he added.