IC Insights, a leading research firm, expects a modest decline in headline inflation for July 2026, forecasting an inflation of 5.0% for July 2026.

This is coming after inflation surged for three consecutive months to 5.3% in June 2026.

According to the research firm, it perceives easing upside risks in July 2026.

“We perceive easing upside risk and expect a modest decline in headline inflation for July 2026. Global energy prices have shifted sharply lower with brent crude oil trading just above US$70 per barrel and virtually pricing-out the wartime premium. We observed an almost immediate pass-through to domestic energy prices in the second pricing window for fuel in June 2026”.

“The decline in domestic petroleum price have intensified with the cedi appreciation in June [2026] providing additional drag in the July fuel pricing window. We view this favourable energy price shift as downward pressure on inflation rate while the reversed transport fare hike drags down non-food and headline inflation”, it added.

That said, IC Insights said it continues to expect moderately elevated food price pressure compared to the comparable period in 2025, especially as the closed fishing season takes off in July 2026 – one month for semi-industrial vessels and two months for industrial trawlers.

Also, the recent heavy rains and floods keep its cautious ahead of the third-quarter 2026 crop harvest. "Against this backdrop, we forecast a 30bps [basis points] decline in the annual headline rate to 5.0% while the sequential rate picks up slightly to 0.4% month-on-month in July 2026.”

Ghana's annual headline inflation surged by 160 basis points to 5.3% in June 2026, with the overall momentum consistent with IC Insights expectation but landing 40 basis points below its forecast for the month.

The June inflation spike represents the 3rd consecutive month of uptick in annual inflation and the steepest increase in headline inflation since late 2024 when food supply shocks reversed the disinflation trend.