Deloitte is forecasting inflation to decline to 4.90% in July, then taper off in half-year 2026 as the harvest food season begins and food supply improves.

According to the professional services firm, food inflation is expected to ease and stabilise in July 2026, driven by improvements in domestic food supply as the country approaches its main harvest season.

In its West Africa Inflation update, it pointed out that Ghana’s non-food inflation is expected to ease significantly in the coming month, driven by easing global oil prices and an appreciating cedi.

“The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana is anticipated to leave the policy rate unchanged in July 2026, adopting a cautious but accommodative stance. The decision is expected to reflect a careful balancing of inflation risks while supporting the sustained stability of the cedi and ongoing economic recovery efforts”, it added.

June 2026 Inflation

Ghana’s year-on-year headline inflation in June 2026 increased for the third consecutive month to 5.3% from 3.7% in May.

The year-on-year food inflation rose to 3.9% in June 2026, up from 3.3% in May, driven by the escalating costs of locally produced items, soaring prices for commodities like ginger, and pass-through impacts from higher transport and energy costs.

The year-on-year non-food inflation rose to 6.3% in June, up from 4.1% in May 2026, due to higher service-related costs, driven by increased transport fares, housing and rental costs, and secondary school fees.

However, consumer prices decreased to 0.2% on a month-on-month basis in June 2026, down from 1.1% in May 2026, driven by easing energy costs, specifically falling global pump prices for gasoline.

Inflation for locally produced goods increased to 6.7% from 5.0% in May and accounted for 86.6% of headline inflation, compared with imported inflation, which rose to a relatively modest 2.3%.

 Top 5 Divisions with Highest Inflation

Inflation pressures remained service-driven in June 2026, with nine of the 13 divisions recording inflation above the national average of 5.3%, signalling elevated costs in formal, and contract-based services.

The Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels inflation decreased from 11.8% in May to 7.9% in June 2026, reflecting milder price pressures and stabilising utility costs driven by the ripple effect of the downward utility tariff adjustments for the second quarter of 2026.

Transport inflation increased in June 2026, to 9.1% up from -2.8% in May, driven by a 20% nationwide increase in public transport fares (bus and trotro fares) that took effect on June 2, 2026.

Education services inflation rose to 8.7% in June 2026, driven by higher tuition and operational costs at primary and secondary schools and higher prices for educational materials and utilities.

Restaurants and accommodation services inflation rose to 8.2% in June 2026, up from 7.2% in May 2026, due to high locally produced input costs and broader domestic service-sector price hikes.