Professional services firm, PwC, says the first-half year performance of the Ghanaian economy was genuinely strong, but not all of it should be read as a permanent shift in Ghana’s underlying macroeconomic risk profile.

In its assessment of the Mid-Year Budget Review, it said some of the improvement reflects disciplined fiscal control and debt restructuring progress, highlighting that some are the result of favourable base effects, delayed expenditure execution, lower domestic interest rates, stronger reserves, and relatively favourable first-half financial conditions.

Nonetheless, it warned that some may prove harder to sustain as capital spending is reallocated, external risks worsen, and inflation begins to rise from unusually low levels.

It pointed out that the Minister of Finance’s year-end targets remain plausible, but not all carry the same degree of credibility. “Overall, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth around 4.8% looks achievable, looking at reported performance over the past two quarters. The primary surplus target of 1.5% of GDP on a commitment basis also looks within reach, provided spending discipline holds”.

However, it stated that the inflation narrative deserves some caution, arguing that the end-June inflation of 5.3% is undeniably strong, as it rose 160 basis points in just one month.

“Plus, the fact remains that inflation has risen consistently since March 2026, signifying an enduring break from the trend reported since early 2024”.

“In our view, the inflationary shocks triggered by the Middle East conflict are partly responsible for this reversal in the disinflationary path. We think inflation will push against the 10% upper limit—if not breach it slightly—by the end of the year, if the government accelerates infrastructure and education spend in the manner suggested by the Minister”, it mentioned.

“Also, we expect other factors, such as elevated import demand and shipping costs to exert upward pressure on inflation. Our position is that the disinflation story is real, but probably closer to a turning point than the Minister implies”, it added.

Message to Business Leaders

For business leaders and investors, PwC cautioned them that Ghana’s macro picture is much improved, but this is not yet a no-risk operating environment.

It therefore urged businesses to prepare for a second half, which is defined by mild reflation, selective expenditure acceleration, a still-fragile external environment, and potentially less room for further monetary easing than markets had hoped.