The Institute of Economic Research and Public Policy (IERPP) has raised concerns over what it describes as massive revenue leakages in Ghana’s petroleum sector, warning that more than 200 million litres of fuel cannot be accounted for between 2020 and 2025.

According to the institute, the missing fuel volumes have resulted in tax revenue losses exceeding GH¢600 million, posing a major threat to Ghana’s fragile fiscal recovery efforts.

In a press statement dated May 10, Executive Director of the IERPP, Prof. Isaac Boadi, said reports from industry groups, oversight institutions and petroleum sector analyses all point to persistent leakages across the fuel supply chain.

The institute cited findings from the Petroleum Product Analysis Report for 2025, the Public Interest and Accountability Committee (PIAC), and other sector reports covering 2025 and 2026.

“The emerging consensus across industry groups, oversight bodies and sector reports are clear: over 200 million litres of fuel cannot be accounted for, resulting in more than GH¢600 million in lost tax revenue,” the statement said.

The institute argued that weak monitoring systems at the ports and throughout the petroleum distribution chain continue to create opportunities for revenue losses.

According to the statement, the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies has recommended the use of real-time fuel tracking systems, including Automatic Tank Gauging technology, routine stock reconciliation and stricter monitoring of depot and refinery movements.

IERPP questioned why such controls are allegedly no longer functioning effectively if similar systems had previously been implemented under Strategic Mobilisation Limited (SML).

The institute stressed that understanding the current challenges requires a broader assessment of Ghana’s revenue performance trends between 2019 and 2025.

Strong revenue growth but persistent weaknesses

IERPP noted that data from the Ghana Revenue Authority (GRA) showed significant nominal tax revenue growth over the period.

According to the institute, tax revenue increased from GH¢43.9 billion in 2019 to GH¢153.6 billion in 2024, with growth rates peaking at 49.3 per cent in 2023 and 35.8 per cent in 2024.

The institute further observed that the GRA exceeded its 2024 revenue target by collecting GH¢153.6 billion against a target of GH¢146 billion, representing a 5.2 per cent overperformance.

However, it said the gains were uneven, as indirect taxes underperformed by 21.5 per cent despite stronger performances in direct taxes and customs revenue.

Customs revenue alone, according to the statement, surged from GH¢16.1 billion in 2021 to GH¢45.3 billion in 2024.

In contrast, the institute said total revenue and grants for the first eleven months of 2025 fell below target.

It stated that total revenue and grants stood at GH¢187.87 billion, compared to a target of GH¢201.37 billion.

Domestic revenue also underperformed, while non-oil tax revenue reportedly missed its target by 4.5 per cent, which the institute attributed to “persistent structural inefficiencies or leakages” in tax administration.

Although oil tax revenue exceeded expectations by 31.2 per cent, the institute noted that oil and gas receipts declined sharply.

According to the statement, oil and gas receipts dropped to GH¢5.92 billion, missing targets by 64.2 per cent and falling by 66.6 per cent year-on-year.

IERPP described the development as a “major fiscal concern”.

Ghana cannot afford revenue leakages

The institute warned that Ghana’s economy could not absorb continuous revenue leakages at a time when the country’s fiscal recovery remains fragile.

Citing the World Bank’s 8th Ghana Economic Update, the statement said Ghana’s tax collection averaged only 13.2 per cent of GDP between 2017 and 2021, well below the country’s estimated tax capacity of 21.2 per cent of GDP.

IERPP argued that every avoidable leakage in petroleum taxation, customs administration and domestic tax collection weakens fiscal sustainability and undermines public service delivery.

The institute also referenced the 2024 Auditor-General’s report, which identified GH¢18.42 billion in irregularities involving public boards, corporations and statutory institutions.

It urged government to move beyond reports and implement stricter enforcement measures to ensure accountability within the revenue mobilisation system.

Seven questions for government

As part of its statement, the institute posed seven critical questions to government and revenue authorities, including what accounted for the strong revenue gains between 2019 and 2024 and why leakages persist despite digital reforms such as the Electronic Revenue Assurance System and the Integrated Customs Management System.

The institute also questioned the sharp collapse in oil and gas receipts despite stronger oil tax performance and asked whether systemic leakages within customs, petroleum monitoring and domestic tax administration were being overlooked.

IERPP further demanded accountability from officials, institutions and private actors linked to unaccounted fuel volumes and weak enforcement mechanisms.

“Ghana must choose transparency over silence, enforcement over excuses, and public accountability over institutional delay,” the statement concluded.

Below is the press release in full: