The Executive Director of the Centre for Policy Scrutiny (CPS), Dr Adu Owusu Sarkodie, has warned that Ghana could return to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) within a few years if the country fails to maintain fiscal discipline and implement structural economic reforms.

This comes after the completion of its current bailout programme.

In a media interview on Tuesday, May 19, 2026, Dr Sarkodie said Ghana’s long-standing pattern of overspending and weak expenditure controls after IMF programmes continues to undermine the country’s economic progress and credibility in the eyes of international investors.

According to him, although Ghana has made significant gains in stabilising the economy under the IMF-supported Extended Credit Facility (ECF) programme, the country remains vulnerable because it has historically struggled to sustain economic discipline once IMF supervision eases.

“Historically, we have not been able to maintain the discipline. That is why we keep going to the IMF, then we come back, we misbehave, then we go to them again,” he stated.

Dr Sarkodie revealed that his own statistical assessment showed that Ghana has, on average, returned to the IMF every four years since independence, a development he described as troubling for a country with vast natural resources and economic potential.

“The last IMF programme ended in 2019, and by 2023, we were back again. That tells you there is still doubt about our ability to sustain fiscal discipline on our own,” he stressed.

His comments come at a time when the government has announced the successful completion of Ghana’s IMF bailout programme and a transition to the IMF’s Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI), a non-financial arrangement designed to provide technical guidance, policy coordination, and investor confidence rather than direct financial support.

Dr Sarkodie explained that the new PCI arrangement was necessary because international investors still remain uncertain about Ghana’s commitment to prudent economic management.

“The IMF Executive Director himself said there is doubt among investors that Ghana may not be able to keep the discipline. That is one of the reasons the PCI is still needed to keep us in check,” he explained.

According to him, the arrangement could help restore access to international credit markets and improve investor confidence after Ghana was effectively shut out of the Eurobond market during the height of the economic crisis in 2022.

Dr Sarkodie, however, emphasised that the current macroeconomic stability being celebrated by the government has not yet translated into tangible improvements in the living conditions of ordinary Ghanaians.

He explained that while inflation has declined significantly and the cedi has strengthened against major foreign currencies, many households continue to struggle with high prices and low purchasing power.

“The IMF focuses on the macroeconomy. Inflation, debt, reserves and exchange rates but the ordinary Ghanaian is thinking about pocket economics,” he stated.

Using a vivid analogy to explain inflation, the economist said, “Inflation is like a thief. In the past, the thief was stealing 100 cedis from you. Now the thief is stealing 20 cedis. The hardship has reduced, but the thief is still stealing.”

The CPS Director further warned that Ghana’s economy remains fragile and highly exposed to external shocks despite signs of recovery.

He said recent increases in fuel and tomato prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and supply disruptions from Burkina Faso, demonstrate how vulnerable the economy remains.

“We have recovered from the symptoms of the crisis, but we have not built a resilient economy yet. The economy can walk small, small, but it cannot run,” he remarked.

He called on the government to roll out measures to sustain the economic gains and ensure the country does not return to the Bretton Woods Institution for a bailout.