IC Insights is forecasting a growth rate of 6.4% ± 0.5 percentage points for Ghana in 2026.

This is based on the back of a bullish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter of 2026.

The leading investment research firm said it expects the government to raise its target during the mid-year budget review in July 2026.

Ghana’s economic rebound gathered pace in quarter one 2026, with growth dynamics suggesting broadening of momentum beyond the extractive sector into firmer consumer spending.

Overall real GDP growth in quarter one 2026 came in at 6.4% year-on-year, slightly faster than the 6.2% outturn in the same period of 2025.

“Overall, we view Ghana’s 1Q2026 [quarter one 2026] real GDP growth as an early indication of another year of trend growth, outperforming the authorities’ below-trend target of 4.8%. We thus maintain our FY2026 overall growth forecast of 6.4% ± 0.5pp and expect the authorities to raise their target during the mid-year budget review in July 2026”.

In quarter one 2026 GDP, Industry recorded a strong outturn of 6.9% compared to the previous year of 4.1%. Agriculture and Services, however, recorded lower growth rates of 4.0% and 7.1%, as against 6.6% and 7.4% during the same period last year.

IC Insights said the services sector remained the engine of growth with recovery in trades, digitalisation and improving consumer spending driving growth. “We note a strong rebound in trades sub-sector to 9.0% in 1Q2026 (vs 3.3% in 1Q2025) while ICT expanded by 25.2% year-on-year from 13.1% a year earlier. Transport & haulage activities also grew strongly by 13.0% y/y, surging from 8.4% in the corresponding quarter of 2025”.

“In our opinion, the trades sector reflects the benefits of subdued consumer price growth as inflation fell sharply to 3.2% in March 2026 (vs 22.4% in March 2025). The boost in consumer spending was visible across households, government, and the business sector”, it added.

The slump in the cocoa and fishing sub-sector held back agriculture growth. “We observed a significant slowdown in cocoa sector growth to 3.8% year-on-year in 1Q2026 despite the authorities’ proposed measures to revive the sector. That said, we attribute a significant part of the slowdown to a high base effect from last year as the sub-sector expanded by 23.1% in 1Q2025. The growth outturn suggests to us that the Ghanaian cocoa sector”.

Nevertheless, it expects the sector to churn out a positive growth in full year 2026 as the government seeks to launch a US$1.0bn Cedi denominated domestic bond before August 2026 for crop purchases.