Dr Seyram Kawor, a senior lecturer at the University of Cape Coast (UCC) Business School, says Ghana’s recent drop in inflation to 3.8 per cent in January 2026 did not catch him off guard, noting that earlier projections from both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank of Ghana (BoG) pointed in the same direction.

Speaking on JoyNews’ Desk on Thursday, 5 February, Dr Kawor explained that the IMF and the central bank had earlier projected inflation to fall within a 6 – 10 per cent range over the period, making the latest outcome consistent with expectations.

“The latest inflationary figures did not surprise me much. The reason is that the IMF and the Bank of Ghana themselves projected an inflation rate of between 6 and 10 per cent for this period,” he said.

He attributed the easing trend to the sustained tight monetary policy implemented by the central bank, which he said has gradually slowed price increases across the economy.

However, Dr Kawor cautioned the public against assuming that a lower inflation rate will automatically translate into falling prices in the market.

“As the market women have stated, it only means that prices will continue to go up, but at a very slow rate. It does not mean that because inflation has fallen, prices should also come down,” he explained.

Dr Kawor said the trend has also been supported by relative stability in the foreign exchange market, where the Ghana cedi has remained steadier, helping to ease import-driven price pressures.

He further noted that food inflation has declined to about 3.9 per cent, largely due to improved harvests, contributing to the overall slowdown in price increases.

“We have seen food inflation coming down, and better harvests during the period are also influencing the pricing we are seeing now,” he said.

Dr Kawor highlighted that improvements in external reserves, now estimated to cover four to five months of imports, have also bolstered inflation moderation.

“The medicine from the central bank, especially the tight monetary policy and the improved reserves position, is also a key factor contributing to the inflation rate we are seeing,” he added.

He concluded that the consistent downward trend over time shows that the latest figures are part of a broader adjustment process rather than an unexpected development.

“When you see the drop, it has been consistent over the years, and for that matter, this does not surprise me at all,” he said.

Inflation remains a key economic indicator as Ghana continues its recovery under an IMF-supported programme, with price stability seen as critical to easing cost-of-living pressures for households and businesses.