Petrol and diesel prices are expected to fall marginally at the pumps from Friday, October 16, 2026, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) could see an 18.5% increase per kilogram.

This is according to the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies’ pricing outlook for the next pricing window.

Breakdown

Petrol is projected to decline by almost 2% to GH¢17.67 per litre, while diesel could fall by 3.32% to GH¢19.30 per litre.

LPG, however, is expected to rise by 18.5% to GH¢20.60 per kilogram.

During the October 1 pricing window, most oil marketing companies maintained their prices following a GH¢2 levy on diesel and a government intervention in which Tema Oil Refinery and Sentuo Oil supplied refined products to the companies at previous prices.

Reasons for the price changes

The Chamber attributed the projected adjustments to developments on the international market and recent government subsidy measures.

In its report, the Chamber said average crude oil prices rose by 2.03% to US$126.73 per barrel for the October 16 pricing window.

It attributed the increase to renewed supply concerns, as Ukraine questioned a proposed US-backed energy ceasefire and Saudi Arabia faced fresh attacks amid the war with Iran.

Prices of refined petroleum products, however, recorded mixed movements. LPG rose by 7.77%, while diesel fell by 6.68% and petrol declined by 3.93%.

Meanwhile, the Ghana cedi depreciated by 1.61% to GH¢11.8222 to the US dollar, based on average bank rates between September 26 and October 11, 2026.

The Chamber said the cedi had lost more than 11% against the dollar so far this year, with seasonal import demand and higher energy costs continuing to put pressure on the currency.

Despite these developments, petrol and diesel prices are expected to see only modest reductions at the pumps, in line with projections from several analysts earlier this month.

NPA lowers petrol and diesel price floors

The National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has also reduced the minimum prices for petrol and diesel for the October 16 pricing window.

Market data sighted by Joy Business shows that the petrol price floor has been lowered from GH¢16.45 to GH¢16.09 per litre.

The diesel price floor has also been reduced from GH¢17.97 to GH¢17.09 per litre.

The LPG price floor, however, has increased from GH¢11.10 to GH¢13.87 per kilogram.

The NPA said these price floors exclude premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies (IOTCs), operating margins of Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies (BIDECs), and margins charged by Oil Marketing Companies and LPG Marketing Companies.

Those charges will be determined independently by the respective companies in accordance with the prescribed Petroleum Products Pricing Formula.