Ghana’s growth rate for 2025 to remain unchanged at 4.5% - Databank

Databank Research has maintained its end-of-year real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast at 4.5% ± 100 basis points.

In its second half-year outlook, it expects increased infrastructure investment, particularly in roads, to boost industrial activity.

“We expect stable agriculture output and moderate growth in services to support this outlook”, it added.

“However, we revise our quarter 2, 2025, down from 5.6% to 4.8%, reflecting the seasonal effect on cocoa output and softer momentum in services, even as industry gains pace on the back of strong gold exports”, it stressed.

“We expect the industry sector to expand by 4.9% in quarter 2, 2025, up from 3.4% in quarter one 2025. We foresee increased government funding for road infrastructure aiding this growth, with strong gold export receipts likely offsetting softer oil and gas output”, it continued.

It projected the services sector to grow by 6.1% in quarter 2 2025, up from 5.9% in quarter one 2025.

It noted that easing cost pressures and softer interest rates amid a stable cedi run should support growth in trade, information and communication, and financial services subsectors, highlighting that ongoing digital transformation programmes are expected to improve consumer spending, sustaining growth momentum.

For the agriculture sector, it pointed out that its forecast points to an expected growth rate of 3.3% in the second quarter of 2025, down from 6.6% in  the first quarter of 2025, as seasonal cocoa shortfalls weigh on performance. “However, we acknowledge potential for a rebound in quarter 3, 2025,  with optimism that improved food supplies will be supported by funding and policies under the Agriculture for Economic Transformation Agenda programme”.

Ghana's real GDP including oil expanded by 5.3% year-on-year the first quarter of 2025, up from 3.4% in the 4th quarter of 2024 and above the 4.9% recorded in quarter one 2024.