Professional services firm, Deloitte, has indicated that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of Ghana is likely to maintain the status quo on its policy rate to tame inflation risks amid Ghana cedi gains and uncertainties.

The MPC kept the policy rate at 28% in May 2025, citing higher inflation despite exchange rate stability and fiscal consolidation.

In its West Africa MPC Update, Deloitte said the Bank of Ghana anticipates a quicker trajectory towards the inflation target of 12% by early 2026, assuming no unexpected shocks.

It added that the banking sector remains well capitalized and liquid despite elevated non-performing loans (NPL).

Implications of MPC Decision

On the implications of the MPC decision, it pointed out that the positive real rate of return on investment has increased (stronger capital inflows from high-yield government securities).

It mentioned that balancing price stability will sustain economic recovery and improve consumer and business confidence.

Similarly, it said the limited credit availability to the real sector is due to a relatively high-interest rate environment.

Concerns

It expressed concerns about the resurgence in inflationary pressure, such as utility tariff adjustments and the spillover effect from the global trade war.

MPC likely to Maintain Cautious Approach

In Nigeria, Deloitte said the MPC is likely to maintain a cautious approach to managing price stability amid uncertainties and a fragile macroeconomic environment.

The policy rate in Nigeria presently stands at 27.50%.

It explained that the ongoing fiscal policies will complement monetary policy efforts in reining in inflation.

It expressed concerns about the electricity tariffs, persistent forex demand pressure, and other underlying structural factors.

Similarly, global shocks, including the decline in global crude oil prices, which is attributable to increased non-OPEC production and uncertainties associated with the U.S. trade policy.