S&P Global Ratings has signalled that Ghana’s sovereign credit rating could face renewed pressure within the next 12 to 18 months if the country’s fiscal reform efforts lose momentum or external economic conditions worsen.

In its latest assessment, the ratings agency cautioned that any slowdown in fiscal consolidation—resulting in wider budget deficits or rising debt servicing costs—could undermine the government’s ability to refinance maturing obligations. It noted that such developments would likely weaken investor confidence and strain public finances.

S&P also highlighted risks from the external sector, pointing to the potential impact of declining export volumes or unfavourable shifts in global commodity prices.

Additionally, the agency warned that delays in Ghana’s ongoing debt restructuring process—particularly under the G20 Common Framework—could pose further downside risks if disagreements among creditors persist.

Despite these concerns, S&P indicated that there remains room for improvement if the government sustains fiscal discipline.

It noted that stronger revenue performance, reduced debt servicing burdens, and continued accumulation of foreign reserves could support a possible upgrade in Ghana’s rating outlook over the same period.

The agency affirmed Ghana’s long- and short-term sovereign credit ratings at ‘B-/B’ with a stable outlook, citing a balance between improving macroeconomic indicators and lingering vulnerabilities.

Ghana’s recent gains—including a current account surplus, rising reserves, and significant progress in debt restructuring following the 2022 default—were acknowledged as key stabilising factors, even as risks remain.