The African Country Instability Risk Report (Aciri) assesses the political, economic and social factors contributing to Sub-Saharan Africa’s political instability. It provides a framework for assessing the risk of coups d’état using factors such as ethnic tension, the country’s history of coups, dominant ethnic groups, economic concentration, ageing leaders and monoproduct, bi-product or multi-product economies.

The Aciri breaks down the challenges and opportunities in each African region for stakeholders and offers recommendations on mitigating risks, maximising opportunities and making informed decisions about investing and operating in Sub-Saharan Africa.

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West Africa is a diverse region with a mix of economies from Nigeria, Benin and Ghana to the landlocked Sahel states of Burkina Faso and Mali. It is economically promising but faces political instability, security threats, economic inequality and climate change. Despite these hurdles, West Africa offers agriculture, mining and tourism opportunities.

Central Africa‘s history is marked by coups, civil wars, ethnic tensions, fragile institutions and economic dependence on oil and precious stones, making the region vulnerable to global price fluctuations. Terrorism, armed conflicts and organised crime hinder development and stability. Unique risks include the ongoing DRC conflict, armed groups in the Central African Republic and the looming threat of terrorism by Boko Haram and Al-Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM).

Also, the Aciri evaluates the risks in East Africa. The region houses some of the fastest-growing economies and the most fragile states in the world, but it faces ethnic and religious tensions, exemplified by the recent clashes in Kenya. Likewise, economic protests have occurred in Ethiopia. However, the region offers opportunities in agriculture, tourism and telecommunications. Positioned at the crossroads of Africa, Asia and the Middle East, the region is strategically important for trade and investment.

Finally, the Aciri probes the risks in Southern Africa, spotlighting countries like South Africa and Zimbabwe. South Africa grapples with economic inequality, while Eswatini and Lesotho face political instability. But Botswana and Angola offer opportunities for businesses and investors. Abundant natural resources, including minerals and oil, provide a strong foundation for growth.

2023 has been the year when the bite of longstanding state fragility has come to the fore – whether in African government takeovers or the renewal of hostilities in the Middle East. Coups in Africa, a region known for its history of political instability and coup d’états, offer important lessons on governance, political instability, and state fragility. Both the Israel-Gaza conflict and coups in Africa have implications beyond their immediate regions. Instability in one area can have ripple effects, influencing regional stability and potentially leading to wider conflicts or spillover effects. Studying these events helps in understanding and mitigating these broader security implications. Aciri

Understanding the causes and consequences of coups can enhance decision-making by investors and capital allocators as well as inform policies aimed at strengthening democratic institutions and promoting good governance. Aciri achieves that by utilising rigorous research and analysis, presented in a clear and accessible style, making it valuable to a wide range of stakeholders.