Audio By Carbonatix
US inflation hit 3% for the first time since January last month, but remained milder than many analysts had expected.
The 3% rate tracked the pace of consumer price increases over the year to September and was up from 2.9% in the prior month, the Labor Department said. Analysts had forecast a 3.1% jump, warning of building pressures from new trade tariffs.
The report is the first official piece of economic data the US government has published since shutting down earlier this month.
It comes days before the US central bank is due to vote on its next cut to interest rates and bolstered bets that policymakers would decide to lower borrowing costs again.
Olu Sonola, head of US economic research for Fitch Ratings, said he expected the figures to bring a "sigh of relief for the Fed".
"The tariff pass through generally remains muted," he said. "As odd as it may seem, the Fed will be happy with inflation staying around 3% for the next couple of months."
The Federal Reserve typically raises interest rates when it wants to stabilise prices and lowers them when it believes the economy needs a boost to keep employment stable.
But it is currently facing an economy showing signs of both problems.
Hiring has slowed in recent months, while prices continue to rise faster than the bank's 2% target rate, pushed up in part by the Trump's administration's policies such as tariffs.
Prices for furniture, which is heavily imported, for example,have increased 3.8% over the 12 months to September, and rose a solid 0.9% over the month.
Costs for services, like haircuts, airfares and daycare, also continue to climb.
But though inflation has ticked up, it has remained more limited than analysts had initially forecast, as many firms hesitate to pass the full cost of the new border taxes onto their customers in the form of higher prices.
From August to September, prices rose 0.3%, moderating a bit from the 0.4% rise in the prior month.
Wells Fargo analysts said the softer-than-expected numbers all but guaranteed the Fed would cut interest rates next week.
"That said, today's data were not so soft that the Committee can sound the all clear," they added.
The Labor Department recalled workers that had been put on unpaid leave due to the shutdown to publish the report, which is used to help calculate cost-of-living adjustments for the social security retirement programme.
The Social Security Administration said on Friday that it would increase its payments by 2.8% next year, reflecting those pressures.
Most items tracked in the September report showed price increases,with groceries up 2.7% from last year.
Prices for beef and veal are up more than 14% since last year, rising 1.2% over-the-month.
Coffee prices have also surged nearly 19% since last year, though they dipped 0.1% from August to September.
Higher petrol prices were the biggest driver of inflation last month, rising 4.1%. But they are down 0.5% for the year.
The Labor Department also said increases in housing costs are easing.
Rents rose 3.5% in the year to September, the same as in August.
And while owners' equivalent rent - a figure used to estimate housing costs for homeowners - has climbed 3.8% since last year, it rose just 0.1% from August to September.
That marked the smallest monthly increase since January 2021, the Labor Department said.
Latest Stories
-
Mass exodus hits Category C and D schools as heads scout for students at Kumasi centre
47 seconds -
Photos: Jama, chants and school pride as NSMQ 2026 grand finale heats up
3 minutes -
Supreme Court oath is ‘consequential, not ceremonial’ – Mahama tells new justices
6 minutes -
ATLF2026: Tourism industry players honoured at event in Limpopo, South Africa
7 minutes -
Obuasi SecTech closure leaves newly placed students in limbo as Adansi group demands reopening
7 minutes -
Livestream: NSMQ 2026 Grand Finale, PRESEC, AUGUSCO and Accra Academy battle for national glory
13 minutes -
Best Assurance donates GH¢100,000 to GETFund to support education
16 minutes -
Uphold Constitution, administer justice without fear or favour – Mahama to new Justices
24 minutes -
Mahama urges Supreme Court justices to protect public trust in judiciary
25 minutes -
Dumelo wishes NSMQ finalists well ahead of contest
31 minutes -
Let your reasoning and fairness define your legacy – Mahama to new justices
33 minutes -
Mahama charges new Supreme Court justices to protect judicial independence
43 minutes -
Mahama swears in three new Supreme Court justices
48 minutes -
TUC calls for urgent review of Labour Act to strengthen workers’ rights
1 hour -
AMA proposes city-to-city partnerships with Russian cities
1 hour