Much of the intellectual shallowness in national political debate can be seen in the ‘floating voter myth’ gaining currency and its employment in the Ben Ephson-led pollster industry.

It shall however not succeed in erasing the historical and scientific fact that the loyalty and sacrifice of the core support base of a party is the central determinant factor in electoral fortunes.

Even to command the support of marginal/floating voters is dependent on the expressive will of inspired and dedicated party loyalists working in well defined structures within the national social fabric.

Marginal voters/tendencies respond to the strongest and most effective of the contending forces in any election.

 It plays a subsidiary role and it is depended on the will of the core support base that by its activity attracts them. It is not an independent objective variable.

 The 1951 general elections is a striking example. The overwhelming victory of the Convention Peoples’ Party (CPP) shocked the colonial authorities and made hopeless all the polls and predictions of the time.

It drew international attention and provoked terrified comments from the leadership of apartheid South Africa.

By 1950 the CPP was the most orgnised political party in the country. It had 120,000 active members, 10, 000 officers nationwide and 1500 full time workers. It had central organ the Evening News published in English and seven local languages with a circulation of tens of thousands.

 It won 38 out of 42 of the seats in the legislative council. It had inspiring leadership and loyal party core active in the entire social fabric of the then Gold Coast.

Persons like Ben Ephson must understand that a political party is not just a gathering of individuals with similar political preferences. But an organisational machinery capable of transforming and administering the political will of the people.

The defeat of the NPP in 1992 was an objective reflection of the weakness of the NPP political machinery as against the Rawlings state political and economic monopoly.

The combined strength of opposition forces undermined the monopoly of the NDC in Ghanaian politics. The Nana Akufo-Addo led Kumepreko demonstration on May 11, 1995 inaugurated the fourth Republic.

All major divisions and splits in the NDC centre manifested at this period, beginning with the defection of the then Vice-President Kow Nkesen Arkaarh and more significantly the first open statement of opposition by Opoku Kyeretwie, Goosie Tanoh and others in 1995.

Goosie Tanoh and his comrades will later form the core of the splinter National Reform Party (NRP) in 2000.

The humiliation of the NDC in the 2000 general elections was as the result of the disintegration of its core base. The cadre core that defected was not floating voters but dye in the wool loyalists.   

Candidate Mills, an accomplished academic and public servant despite all the personal ratings was humiliated in 2000.

He could not inspire the NDC core base in Teshie, Nima, Ashaiman and the coastal communities as much as Jerry Rawlings. The supporters of the NDC were in a state of apathy.

Apathy amongst party supporters is one of the serious draw backs. A party leader must first and foremost command the loyalty of party activists, be in control of the party organisational machinery, activate and inspire fresh enthusiasm and hope.

 In political psychology, apathy is an expression of conscious will and not indifference or lethargy as most people ordinarily think. An inspiring leadership will ensure a high voter turnout in the stronghold areas of the party to ensure victory.

Now it is important to distinguish between members and supporters of a party. The members are those who are sympathetic to the aims of the party and work towards the achievement of its objectives. The supporters are sympathetic to the aims of party but do not do commit to work to achieve its objectives.

The active core membership base is the determinant force when well managed changes the course of history.

The Editor of the Daily Dispatch [Ben Ephson] recently stated that should there be elections within the New Patriotic Party between President J. A. Kufuor and Nana Akufo-Addo the later will win; but should it be a nationwide contest President Kufuor will beat Nana Addo.

Perhaps with the support of ‘floating’ voters in places like Keta, Sefwi, Ada and Alfred Woyome’s home town, Dabala in the Volta Region.

The 2010 NPP presidential primaries made up of a college of over 120,000 strong members from all sectors of national life-- ethnic, geographic, demographic and occupational variations-- is the most reliable and the most scientific poll in the history of political party leadership contest in the country. Amongst such unpopular politicians Alan Kyerematen stands tall.

 Now the question is, are the ‘polls’ organised by the government-rented Daily Dispatch more credible than the unanimous decision of NPP delegates and the clear and decisive rejection of Alan Kyerematen?

Without the support of NPP grass root leaders throughout the country how is Alan going to command the needed loyalty and sacrifice to beat an incumbent African President?

The treacherous aspect of this ‘floating voter’ concept is the suggestion by leading party leaders that decisions of the structures of the NPP at any time is not reflective of the broader will of the Ghanaian people. This self-centred reasoning has far reaching negative implications on the broader public appeal of the party as much as most of the public pronouncements of such fifth columnists.

 NPP members and supporters are real people, not Ben Ephson's statistics. They can be counted and seen. They live and work in Ghana; they see the hopelessness of our youth; the destitution of the rural population and the kind of governance designed to butter the bread of a few in high places.

Already, Alan Kyerematen in his address in the United States recently, as if coached by Ben Ephson, is holding the incoming primaries and decision of tens of thousands of his party members in contempt by saying he appeals to ‘floating voters’.

He has always held the NPP broad base in contempt. At Legon, December 2007, he made the unheard-of statement in his ‘concession’ pronouncement: “I CONCEEDE VICTORY TO NANA ADDO”. 

Thus the NPP entered the 2008 elections with no decisive expression of leadership and cohesion.

The 2007 primaries was an unprecedented use of state patronage that echoed the pinnacle of corrupt influence in political party primaries ever, meant to rig the elections in favour of Alan Kyerematen. Alan refused to concede defeat to Nana Akufo Addo when it seemed obvious a second ballot would have been a humiliation after the myth of Kufuor had been broken into pieces.

A few weeks after Alan announced twice his resignation from the NPP in an election year! His action further reduced the prestige of the NPP and undermined its campaign effort.

This caused the NPP the 2008 general elections by the lowest margin ever.

The 2012 elections were marked by heavy expenditure of state resources and manipulation.

Despite the heavy protestation and hardships NDC won the 1996 elections just as what happened in 2012. In 2000 the situation persisted and it faced a humiliating exit. What worked was that the NPP had build its structures and candidate Kufuor had the support and loyalty of the NPP core.

Perhaps Alan Kyerematen is himself a floating NPP member. He has resigned from the party before and is not loyal member but a floating member day-dreaming of the support of mythical floating voters.

He promised to make business men in Ghana Dollar millionaires, later he spoke of ‘cash to the people’? He promised to stay and fight and win popular mandate for the NPP; then just last year he was in bed with President John Mahama to lead the World Trade Organisation (WTO)? NPP candidate or Mahama-backed WTO candidate? Or he is just a floating candidate?

Ben Ephson should advice him to go as an independent candidate. Ya brε!

[The Author is the General Secretary of the Forum for Public Accountability (FoPA)]