IMF chief says no global slowdown in sight yet, but risks high

IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva

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IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva has welcomed the agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Writing in a new blog, she said the world economy is so far weathering the shock of the war in the Middle East but warned that an intensification of the conflict of supply disruptions posed a "clear risk to global growth."

"More than three months into the war in the Middle East, the global economy appears to be holding up. Commodity prices, inflation and expectations for it, and financial conditions have all been impacted—but not yet in ways that signal a global slowdown," she wrote.

In April, the IMF issued three scenarios for global GDP growth in 2026 and 2027, with its middle "adverse scenario" calling for growth to slow to 2.5% in 2026 and headline inflation of 5.4%.

Georgieva last month said that an adverse scenario was already in play, but her latest comments suggest the fund may revert to its reference scenario, which assumed a short-lived Iran war and saw growth of 3.1% in 2026.

The global lender will release an updated forecast on July 8.

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