U.S. President Donald Trump will campaign in North Carolina on Wednesday ​for Republican Senate candidate Michael Whatley, his first major campaign stop since the Republican Party's midterm convention as he begins ‌a nationwide effort to make the 2026 elections a referendum on his presidency.

The visit comes as Trump seeks to help Whatley, a longtime Republican operative who previously chaired the Republican National Committee, close a polling gap against former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper.

Trump remains a powerful force with the Republican base, but Whatley will also need to ​win over North Carolina's large bloc of swing and unaffiliated voters as Republicans confront rising concerns over affordability that have strained ​Trump's support among more moderate voters.

Trump told Republicans at the convention in Dallas last week to "pretend that I'm on the ⁠ballot," even though he is not seeking election. He has vowed to make multiple campaign stops in battleground states and districts ahead of the November 3 ​elections.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in the past week found Trump's approval rating at 35%, up from a record-low 33% in the previous poll. Democrats led ​Republicans 44% to 37% on the generic congressional ballot, the widest Democratic advantage in the Reuters/Ipsos series since Trump returned to the White House in January 2025.

Fuel prices have added to the affordability challenge. The national average for regular gasoline was $4.33 a gallon on Tuesday, while diesel reached a record $6.27, according to AAA.

The North Carolina ​Senate race is open after Republican Senator Thom Tillis decided not to seek reelection amid a squabble with Trump that doomed his chances within ​the party. Cooper led Whatley 49% to 38% among likely voters in a recent Elon University poll, while 54% of North Carolina voters in the survey disapproved ‌of Trump's ⁠job performance and 31% approved.

The White House signaled that Trump will use the North Carolina event to highlight his administration's record on crime, a recurring theme in Whatley's campaign.

Whatley has work to do consolidating voters who backed Trump in 2024. An August Elon University poll found that 72% of voters who said they backed Trump supported Whatley, while 10% backed Cooper and 14% were undecided. Cooper, by comparison, was capturing 93% of voters ​who said they voted for Kamala ​Harris.

"Trump wins by roughly three points ⁠in '24, largely because those independents decided that he was going to be better at handling the economy than Harris," said Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll and a political science professor. "But he's disappointed them. ​They're not saying the economy is going great, and oftentimes they're pointing to his policies as reasons for ​it."

Unaffiliated voters account ⁠for roughly 40% of North Carolina's registered electorate, making them the state's largest registration bloc.

"It's mathematically impossible to win the state without winning unaffiliated voters," said veteran Republican strategist Paul Shumaker, a former adviser to Tillis. "We Republicans have to understand that we have to address the affordability issue, and we have ⁠to be ​able to put unaffiliated voters' minds at ease as it relates to the economy ​and affordability between now and November for the Senate race to remain in play."

Democrats are seeking to make the race a referendum on Trump and his policies.

"Whatley has tied himself ​to Trump and, given the polls, I would not be doing that," said North Carolina Democratic Party Chairwoman Anderson Clayton.