Audio By Carbonatix
Sub-Saharan African central banks that have added gold to their reserves in recent years could face price and liquidity crises if the value of the precious metal slides, BMI, a unit of Fitch Group, said on Wednesday.
Ghana, Tanzania and Nigeria have been buying gold domestically to beef up their reserves, BMI said, a move accelerated by this year's broader market volatility stoked by U.S. trade tariffs and other geopolitical risks.
Policymakers in Kenya and Uganda are exploring a move into gold, Rwanda and Namibia have taken active steps towards adding the metal into their reserves, while Burkina Faso has indicated it will build up its stockpile and Zimbabwe has said its new ZIG currency is backed by gold reserves, BMI said.
"Gold is increasingly being used by sub-Saharan African markets as a strategic store of value," said Orson Gard, senior Sub-Saharan Africa analyst at BMI, during an investor presentation.
The move, however, comes with various risks, he said, citing Ghana where an aggressive gold purchase programme has led to the metal accounting for a third of its reserves according to BMI calculations, driving a surge in the cedi currency and potentially making the country's exports less competitive.
Governor of the Bank of Ghana, Johnson Asiama, said on Wednesday that while the West African country was heavily exposed to movements in commodity prices, it was taking measures to protect itself against potential price shocks.
"Any sharp price drop would have impact for international reserves... That is why we are starting with the hedging programme," Asiama told a news conference, referring to an arrangement which is expects to limit consequences of unexpected market fluctuations.
The price of gold, which touched a record high earlier this year, may have peaked, BMI said, and it faces potential downward pressure from any reduction in U.S. interest rates.
"Any sudden drop in global gold prices would have significant implications for those markets in sub-Saharan Africa which have rapidly increased gold as a share of their total reserves portfolio," Gard said.
A gradual price decline over the medium-term could also have a negative impact for countries that started buying gold around its recent peak, he added.
"This would not only weigh on reserve adequacy but would also undermine the perceived credibility of central bank policy," he said.
Ghana and Tanzania, which also rely on gold exports, could be hit by the "double whammy" of a drop in the value of their reserves and lower export earnings, he said.
Governments could also struggle to convert their gold holdings into liquid assets like hard currencies, Gard said, pointing to India and Argentina when they faced acute balance of payments challenges in the 1990s and 2000s, respectively.
Latest Stories
-
CJ’s remarks on SOEs were made in good faith, not to undermine judicial independence – Judicial Service
1 hour -
Bright Future Alliance pays courtesy call on Akufo-Addo, invites him to African Leaders of Influence Lectureship Series
1 hour -
This is an attempt to break the Minority caucus – Patricia Appiagyei on alleged GH¢70k payment
2 hours -
‘OSP hasn’t contacted me’ – Patricia Appiagyei assures cooperation if invited
2 hours -
I find it strange that this memo was purportedly written by me – Patricia Appiagyei
2 hours -
Ayariga calls for stronger church partnership to tackle sanitation, environmental challenges
3 hours -
I don’t think we have an industry – Patchbay Band manager
3 hours -
Patchbay Band questions recognition of live bands in Ghana’s music industry
3 hours -
Newsfile to discuss SOEs’ GH¢19.8bn profit, dissolution of 9 boards, CJ’s visits to SOEs, GH¢70k gift rejection
3 hours -
BoG warns against spraying, defacing and using cedi notes for decorations
3 hours -
Adwumawura: Selected applicants to receive notifications from today – NEIP CEO
3 hours -
‘Fake memo’ fabricated to smear me – Patricia Appiagyei
4 hours -
ATLF2026: Culture, investment and tourism take centre stage as Africa’s tourism leaders gather in Polokwane
4 hours -
TI-Ghana and GACC demand full disclosure over alleged GH¢70,000 Appointments Committee payment
4 hours -
UN approves resolution in support of map that shows Africa’s true size
5 hours