A new technical report presented to the Ghana Gold Board (GoldBod) has concluded that the sharp rise in Ghana’s recorded artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) gold exports in 2025 is largely the result of reduced smuggling and improved formalisation, rather than sudden increases in production.

The report, authored by economists from the University of Ghana and the University of Ghana Business School, describes GoldBod as a “regime-changing institutional reform” in the gold sector.

According to the analysis, ASM gold exports surged from 63.6 tonnes in 2024 to 103 tonnes in 2025, representing a 62 per cent increase in volume and a 135 per cent rise in export value.

The researchers argue that such a dramatic jump cannot be explained by higher gold prices or marginal policy adjustments alone, but reflects a fundamental rerouting of gold into official channels.

“The data show that recorded exports respond far more to policy incentives and institutional design than to geology or technology,” the report states. It adds that ASM gold supply is relatively price inelastic and heavily shaped by transaction costs, settlement certainty and the ease of operating within formal structures.

The study traces Ghana’s volatile ASM export history between 2018 and 2025, highlighting how policy shocks—particularly the introduction of a 3 per cent withholding tax in 2021—led to a collapse in formal exports, even though production continued.

“The 2021 collapse provides revealed-preference evidence that miners exited the formal channel when the price wedge made smuggling more attractive,” the authors note.

By contrast, the report concludes that GoldBod’s centralised purchasing system, predictable payments and removal of offshore settlement options significantly compressed incentives for illicit trade.

“The 2025 outcome is best interpreted as the recovery of pre-tax formal exports combined with the capture of previously smuggled volumes,” the economists said, describing the reform as a decisive shift rather than an incremental adjustment.