Headline inflation is expected to trend at the lower end of the medium-term target of 8 ± 2% in 2026, the Bank of Ghana has predicted.

According to the Central Bank, this projection reflects the combined impact of maintaining an appropriate monetary policy stance, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and adequate reserve buffers.

In its January 2026 Monetary Policy Report, it said underlying inflationary pressures continued to ease.

“The Bank’s core measure of inflation, which excludes energy and utility items from the consumer basket, declined to 4.6% in December [2025], down from 5.4% in November [2025]. Inflation expectations, based on surveys of banks, businesses, and consumers, also remained well-anchored, reflecting the continued easing of underlying inflationary pressures”.

In the last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the Committee observed a marked improvement in macroeconomic conditions, with inflation expectations broadly anchored, strengthened external buffers, and renewed confidence in the economy.

They further noted that headline inflation is expected to trend below the midpoint of the medium-term target of 8 ± 2 percent in the first quarter of 2026.

“Looking ahead, the Committee noted that potential upward adjustments to utility tariffs and global trade uncertainties could pose upside risks to the outlook. Notwithstanding this, maintaining an appropriate monetary policy stance, strong sterilisation efforts, ongoing fiscal consolidation, and adequate reserve buffers are expected to sustain the disinflation process going forward”, it pointed out.

Given these considerations, the Committee, in a majority decision, voted to lower the Monetary Policy Rate by 250 basis points to 15.50%.

Looking ahead, the Committee noted that it will continue to assess incoming data and take appropriate policy decisions, as needed, to reinforce the disinflation trend.