Following heavy rain in much of Ivory Coast, pod counters and exporters are starting to lower their production forecasts for the main cocoa crop due to high flower and cherelle mortality after the October counts, they said Friday.

Four pod counters and six exporters whose teams carry out monthly technical surveys on the growth of cherelles, the quantity of flowers on the tree trunks, the quantity of pods on the trees and the soil moisture content observed a worryingly low survival rate of cherelles and flowers in October compared to September and August.

Cherelles are small pods the size of a finger. Cocoa flowers grow into cherelles, and then 22 weeks later, into pods.

Charelles can turn yellow prematurely or even fall more easily from tree trunks when weather conditions are unfavourable.

Heavy rains have flooded several plantations in Ivory Coast's west and southwest since the beginning of October.

The pod counters and exporters said the low survival rate directly impacts the development of the production of the main harvest, which runs from October to March, and which was projected at 1.5 million tonnes in September.

They said if the weather remains unfavourable, the harvest could reach only 1.30 million or 1.35 million tons.

"There was too much rain in October and this accelerated the mortality rate of cherelles and flowers, which is currently around 60% to 70%, compared to an average of 25% over the last two months," said one pod counter.

Another said he is seeing a flower and cherelle mortality rate of more than 65%, compared to 20% in September.

"It's certainly worrying, especially in the west and the southwest ... We were not even able to visit some counting sites," he said.

Cocoa bean arrivals in the ports of Abidjan and San Pedro are unlikely to be affected in the immediate future because existing pods are already developing.

However, from January 2025, arrivals should fall sharply until April due to the high mortality rates of flowers and cherelles, the head of an international export company based in Abidjan said.

"Our latest counts adjusted to the current situation give us an estimated production of around 1.30 million to 1.35 million tons, compared to 1.45 million in September," said the head of a European cocoa export company based in Abidjan.

In the towns of Divo, Gagnoa, Soubre and Daloa, a dozen planters interviewed by Reuters said they are happy with the current level of production, which is high compared to last season, but all confirmed a shortage of flowers and cherelles which are needed to maintain high production levels after December.