Methane emissions from fossil fuels will be decreased by about 50 per cent by 2030 if methane policies and promises made by countries and businesses are implemented and delivered on schedule.

According to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest research, specific methane policies and regulations currently in effect would reduce emissions from fossil fuel operations by about 20% from 2023 levels by 2030.

However, the next phase of updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement will see countries declare climate goals until 2035, providing a significant opportunity for governments to set more ambitious targets for energy-related methane and lay out methods to accomplish them.

According to the IEA, about 40 percent of today's methane emissions from fossil fuels could be prevented at no net cost, and methane abatement in the fossil fuel industry is one of the most practical and cost-effective solutions for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Based on 2023 average energy prices, about 40% of the 120 Mt of methane emissions from fossil fuels may be averted at no net cost. This is because the cost of abatement measures is less than the market value of the additional methane gas captured, sold, or used. Oil and natural gas account for a larger share (50%) than coal (15%).

 “There are many possible reasons why companies are not deploying these measures even though they pay for themselves. For example, the return on investment for methane abatement projects may be longer than for other investment opportunities.

There may also be a lack of awareness regarding the scale of methane emissions and the cost-effectiveness of abatement. Sometimes infrastructure or institutional arrangements are inadequate, making it difficult for companies to receive the income from avoided emissions,” the findings said.

The International Energy Agency predicts that deploying nearly all fossil fuel methane abatement methods would be cost-effective if emissions were priced at USD 20/tonne CO2 equivalent. To fully realise this promise, new regulatory frameworks, financial methods, and improved emissions tracking will be required.

It also estimates that achieving a 75% reduction in methane emissions requires $170 billion in spending by 2030.  “We estimate that around $170 billion in spending is needed to deliver the methane abatement measures deployed by the fossil fuel industry in the NZE Scenario. This includes around $100 billion of spending in the oil and gas sector and $70 billion in the coal industry. Through 2030, roughly USD 135 billion goes towards capital expenditures, while $35 billion is for operational expenditures.”

The most recent IEA Global Methane Tracker recommends that fossil fuel companies bear primary responsibility for financing these abatement measures, given that the amount of spending required represents less than 5% of the industry's revenue in 2023.

 “Nonetheless, we estimate that about $45 billion of spending in low- and middle-income countries requires particular attention, as sources of finance are likely to be more limited. To date, we estimate that external sources of finance targeted at reducing methane in the fossil fuel industry total less than $1 billion, although this should catalyse a far greater level of spending.”

Better and more transparent data based on methane emission measurements is becoming more widely available, enabling more effective mitigation. Kayrros, an analytics startup, released a tool in 2023 that uses satellite imagery to quantify large methane emissions on a daily basis and provide country-level oil and gas methane intensities.

Another technology company, GHGSat, increased its constellation of satellites in orbit to 12 and began offering targeted monitoring of offshore methane emissions, while the United Nations Environment Programme's (UNEP) Methane Alert and Response System (MARS) increased the use of satellites to detect major methane emission events and alert government authorities and operators.